Yes, it is clear to me now.
The atomic-powered computers here at the Blaska Policy Research Center and Experimental Work Farm have finished grinding out their calculations. The men in the white lab coats fed our Remington Rand Univacs only the purest, unpasteurized, farm-fresh data on virgin-stock punch cards.
(As the machines hummed and churned, the earth loomed over my right shoulder, causing great wonderment.)
We can now safely forecast the outcome of Tuesday's Dane County Board elections.
The squire of Stately Blaska Manor (clear throat) predicts that conservative-moderates will pick up 5 seats.
Yes, five seats on a county board that currently lists badly to the left by a 25-12 margin. He would not be surprised by a gain of up to 7 but he is predicting 5. Five seats up.
As we did in Dane County Board by the numbers, we will use red for conservative-moderates and blue for liberal-progressives.
The good guys are challenging 13 of the liberal-progressive seats -- three of which are open seats -- which means we would have to win about half of those races to pick up 5 to 7.
Let's start with the three open seats currently held by liberals who are not seeking re-election (not counting a fourth district on the UW campus):
- We've already won one of them. Either Bill Clausius or Steve Schwartzer, having survived a three-way primary, will replace Jeff Kostelic, who did not seek re-election, in Sun Prairie District 19.
I see one more pick up among the other two open seats, either
- Nancy "Go" Wild for dotty Dorothy Wheeler's seat v. Melissa "No Time for" Sargent in NE Madison 18 or
- Josh (I'm) Gamer for Mark Opitz's seat v. Sharon "Wrong Way" Corrigan in Middleton 26.
The total so far: Plus +1, maybe +2.
There are 10 conservatives challenging liberal incumbents:
- Don Imhoff v Elaine DeSmidt in east Madison District 3
- Greg Hull v. cop
hater, disliker, under-appreciator Brett Hulsey on west side Madison 4
- Mike Thomsen v. anti-curfew Matt Veldran on the SW side & Fitchburg 7
- Rick Raulin v. Paul Rusk in Maple Bluff-East side 12
- Ryan Jennisen v. David deFelice in SE Madison 16
- Patrick Barry v. Robin Schmidt in Monona-Madison 24
- Jeffrey Kritch v. scary Prog Dane prototype Kyle Richmond in Bayview Madison, Town of Madison, NE Fitchburg 27
- Don Steinhauer v. the out-of tune Patrick Downing in SW Dane County 30
- Spencer Zimmerman v. Patrick Miles "to go" in McFarland 34.
- David Siitari v. anti-WalMart shopper Denise Duranczyk in Stoughton 35.
I see 4 to 5 pick-ups here.
Now, there are 5 moderate-conservative incumbents who are contested:
- Ronn Ferrell by Cynthia McKinney on SW Madison 15
- Duane Gau by Gordon Shea in rural Sun Prairie 20
- Dave Wiganowsky by Harvey "Harry" Potter in Cottage Grove/Burke 21
- Big Kurt Schlicht by Robert "Moe" Green in northwest Dane County 28
- Jack Martz by Sam "That ain't good news" Cooke in Fitchburg 33.
Two of those are being pressed hard. If we hold these, as I think we will, we can easily finish Tuesday with 5 -- even 7 -- more conservative-moderates. My prediction: +5.
Don't like mine? Make your own!
Give me one good reason for your forecast
I'll give you eight:
- 7.9 percent property tax increase during a recession
- Intrusive shoreland zoning proposals
- Unelected regional transit authority with power to raise taxes by $42 million annually without referendum
- Law enforcement relegated to secondary status behind never-ending land purchases
- Loss of Triple A borrowing status (meaning loans are more expensive)
- Nationwide dissatisfaction with entrenched taxers and spenders
- Twice as many conservatives challenging liberal seats than vice versa
- The greatest crop of conservative-moderate candidates I've seen in 16 years. Vigorous, accomplished, well spoken. Not a clinker in the bunch.
Here's chutzpah for you
This just in, an attack campaign piece from The Kathleen, progenitor of the un-elected RTA taxing authority ... endorsing Sup. Ronn Ferrell's opponent in SW Madison on the basis of ... "holding the line on taxes?" Ferrell voted against the tax hike! It's on the record!
So here is The Kathleen, creator of the 7.9 percent tax levy hike, claiming ... "he did not offer a single amendment when he and the county board considered and voted on the budget." WHAT?! The record shows that Ferrell offered three amendments on the board floor that would have saved $2.5 million and three more in the committee process that were enacted.
So here is The Kathleen, proponent of emptying the jail in order to return criminals into our neighborhoods on ankle bracelets ... endorsing Ronn Ferrell's challenger on the basis of ... "sitting idly by as burglaries and other crimes have plagued our neighborhoods"? Ferrell voted for adding extra law enforcement officers for the 2009 budget! The Kathleen and her liberal minions successfully fought it! I saw Ronn Ferrell everywhere in the SW Alliance of Neighborhoods Restoring Safety effort the last two years.
Liberals, if you want higher taxes, vote the Kathleen Falk/Scott McDonell/Democrat(ic) Party/Progressive Dane ticket. But be honest about it.
My guess is that this mendacious line will be used in other liberal-progressive districts.
Madame Brenda just doesn't get that the joke's on her!
Don't miss my comedy laff-riot this Tuesday!
Hey, kids! The dean of education at the Blaska Policy Research Center and Experimental Work Farm will convulse you with his side-splitting presentation on "Why Liberals Can't Think" from 6 to 6:30 p.m. on Tuesday, April 6, at Kavanaugh's ESQUIRE CLUB, 1025 N. Sherman Ave. Madison. (A day that will live ... in INFAMY!)
Tuesday's comedy laugh-fest is the latest installment in Bill Richardson's Pints & Politics continuing education and drinking series. No admission charge! Not only that, it's free! Bring a liberal for show and tell! Then witness history as conservative-moderates pick up 5 to 7 seats when the polls close at 8. What fun!
Can't get enough of your BlaskaBlogger? Catch his act today on Up Front With Miss Vicki, guest-hosted by Brian Schimming, Friday, April 2, starting at 3:30 p.m. on WIBA 1310 on your A.M. dial (or in the fillings of your upper left molar).