I don't really know what to make of the recall primaries. At first I was taken aback by how many Republicans turned out for the fake candidates. These are very unusual times, but it appears both sides have adjusted and reacted accordingly.
My first instinct is that the Republicans will only improve their performance in the general elections. If the GOP was able to get 46% of the electorate to vote for a fake Dem in a primary, then won't its real candidate, with name recognition etc. be able to top 50%? I should think so.
Yes, Republican voters will turnout in greater numbers for the general, but so will the Democrats, although I don't think by quite as much.
Here's an important point about the primaries: The results didn't directly correspond to the competitiveness of the district. Although the two largest Dem victories came in the two districts they are expected to take over those of Dan Kapanke and Randy Hopper they also did much better in the Olsen and Cowles districts than the Harsdorf district, and all are relatively the same politically.
Why did the GOP decide to go after the Harsdorf district? According to the Daily Kos poll, Harsdorf was only up on Dem candidate Shelly Moore by 5 points. What vulnerability did they perceive there that they didn't in other districts? Or rather, why were their efforts there so much more effective?
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