There's going to be plenty of commentary on this so I'll keep it short. Like many other Democrats, Feingold is definitely in trouble, and the new poll that shows him down by 11 points to Ron Johnson illustrates that.
Moreover, the poll, which was conducted by PPP, a Democratic firm, specifies the enthusiasm gap between Democratic voters and GOP voters as the source of Johnson's lead. Hence, this election would be a very different animal during a presidential election, as the 2004 race, in which Feingold handily beat Tim Michels, even though Kerry just barely carried Wisconsin.
Which brings me to the next question: Is Feingold's maverick message, which he has pushed to the point of avoiding President Obama when he's around, the best way to go? If the problem lies as much with an unexcited base as with disillusioned independents, then Feingold may be hurting himself by neglecting the support of the president in Democratic strongholds in Milwaukee, Madison and college campuses.
Will Russ Feingold lose by double digits? I highly doubt it. But he could lose, and that's a scenario state Democrats are just starting to digest.