It was only recently that I began dismissing the notion of a Mark Neumann primary victory. Until a couple weeks ago, I assumed, according to conventional wisdom and my observation of the race, that Neumann's bank account was large enough to make up for the time and energy Walker has spent campaigning for governor. If nothing else, Neumann could finance a barrage of attack ads against Walker, painting him as a career politician and a conservative-in-name-only.
When the attack ads didn't come, I was puzzled. One GOP politico told me Neumann was legitimately crazy, and a Democratic pol suggested something similar. Either way, people had finally begun to comfortably predict Neumann's political demise.
Nevertheless, news from the Northeast paints a very different picture. One contact in the Fox Valley says the news keeps getting better for Neumann, especially in light of the constant attacks the Democrats are making against Walker. If the Democrats are running ads accusing Walker of forcing the state to take over Milwaukee County welfare services, then all Neumann has to do to complete the point is run a corny ad touting his conservatism and his intention to fight the career politicians. Alas, the point is made beautifully. One person told me Neumann signs outnumber Walker signs 5 to 1 near Appleton.
Polling primaries, especially in open primary states like Wisconsin, is notoriously difficult. At the risk of sounding cliché, no reliable polls on the GOP primary will be conducted until September 14th. Hence the next question: Which candidate will benefit from the large turnout expected at this year's primary? I've heard there are many moderate or conservative Democrats in the Milwaukee area who will vote in the GOP primary for Walker. Other than that I have little to base further analysis on.
As far as I have heard, no public poll has attempted to assess the primary since the end of June. That one showed Walker with an overwhelming lead. However, the Walker campaign has without a doubt done internal polling since. Why aren't they releasing results if they're up by so much?