Excuse me as I nurse at the teat of conventional wisdom, but the polls are saying Russ Feingold is going down in flames. FiveThirtyEight's forecast now gives the three-term incumbent a 10.7 percent chance of victory. Without delving into the obvious that Feingold was rated by many pollsters as a "Safe Democrat" as recently as three months ago and his opponent seen by most as a pathetic empty-suit candidate I'd like to offer a few examples which give perspective into how radically this race has changed.
For starters, Feingold is now rated a less likely victor than Julie Lassa and Steve Kagen. That Feingold, who won by 12 points in 2004, when Kerry and Bush essentially tied Wisconsin, is considered more vulnerable than Kagen, who has been at the top of the GOP hit-list since his first run in 2006, is absurd but based on some type of statistical analysis.
Furthermore, RoJo's projected chance of winning are now roughly equal to that of Rep. Ron Kind, who Nate Silver says has a 93% chance of winning. I have speculated in the past that, if the midterms turned out to be as powerful an anti-Democratic backlash as 1994, Ron Kind could become a viable target. I would have guessed he would lose well before Feingold.
Shows what I know.
