A CNN poll shows Ron Johnson leading Russ Feingold by 8 points, 52-44, which is consistent with the most recent Rasmussen poll, which showed a 7 point spread. Here's an interesting detail:
Pollster Keating Holland: "Although Johnson is from Oshkosh, he manages no better than a tie in the northeastern part of the state, but he has a two-to-one lead in the Milwaukee suburbs and other parts of the southeastern region, and that's enough to give him a statewide lead.
That is the "enthusiasm gap" on full-blast. If the polls are accurately reflecting the electorate, they are capturing a hyper-motivated conservative base in Waukesha County and nearby areas. The Fox Valley is certainly not a bastion of leftism, but neither has it been as soaked with talk radio-fueled right wing dogma as the greater Milwaukee area in the past two years.
Alas, if Feingold goes down, it is likely not because swing voters soured on him. It will be because many of those voters are staying home, while the Country Club is out in full-force.