The road to reelection has been uphill for Republican first-term U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson. The Wisconsin electorate has historically favored Democrats in presidential years. His opponent Russ Feingold, who served in the Senate for 18 years, is widely known throughout the state and has been campaigning full-time for more than a year.
But while Feingold has led in the polls since he declared his candidacy in May 2015, the race appears to be tightening. An Oct. 12 Marquette Law School poll shows Johnson just two points behind Feingold, less than the poll’s 3.7-percent margin error. The same poll shows Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton increasing her lead in Wisconsin to seven points over Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.
Can Ron Johnson win even if Wisconsin gives its 10 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton?
“It seems unlikely but it’s not out of the realm of possibility,” says Craig Gilbert, veteran Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporter and author of the Wisconsin Voter Blog. “You can’t say [Johnson and Clinton can’t both win], it’d just be pretty remarkable if it did happen.”
Trump has put Wisconsin Republicans in an awkward position. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Janesville) uninvited Trump to his annual Fall Fest rally held in Elkhorn and is refusing to defend his party’s nominee.
Similarly, Johnson has disavowed comments made by Trump and didn’t appear at the Republican nominee’s Oct. 17 Green Bay rally. Johnson hasn’t rescinded his endorsement of Trump but he also doesn’t mention him in campaign speeches. At the first debate between Johnson and Feingold on Oct. 14, Johnson stood by the nominee, if not all his actions.
“I’ve been very consistent in how I’ve been dealing with our Republican nominee and I say I’m supporting the areas of agreement,” Johnson said, noting common ground on economic policies, securing the border and defeating ISIS. “Certainly, appointing judges to the Supreme Court as opposed to super legislators. And certainly supporting someone who will change Washington, that’s certainly what I went there to do. But, I’ve not been shy about disagreeing with our nominee. I’m not going to defend the indefensible.”
This year’s senate race is a rematch of the 2010 campaign, when Johnson unseated Feingold. The candidates offer the typical contrast between Democratic and Republican platforms.
Johnson is again running as a political outsider, touting his experience as CEO of plastic manufacturer Pacur. He rails against domestic spending and promises to reduce government regulation. He does want to spend more on the military which he claims was “hollowed out” during the Obama administration.
Johnson would “scrap” the tax code and has also signed Grover Norquist’s “no new taxes” pledge. He’ll push to repeal the Affordable Care Act in favor of a health care system guided by the “power of the free market.”
Feingold advocates for a higher minimum wage and paid family leave. He opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, is critical of “corporate loopholes” and pledges to repeal tax preferences for the oil and gas industry, end tax inversions and close the carried interest loopholes used by hedge fund managers and professional investors. He’s also a supporter of pay-as-you-go legislation, a rule that requires Congress to offset spending that increases the federal budget. Feingold champions college affordability as well as state and federal partnerships on infrastructure improvement and vows “high-speed broadband for all.”
Even in a normal year, these distinctions might have made for a tight senate race in Wisconsin. But Trump has upended the usual calculus.
Johnson’s margins, Gilbert says, “haven’t been that different than Trump’s margins. In order to win, he would need that to change if Trump loses in Wisconsin.”
The race is further complicated by another player: Libertarian Phil Anderson.
A manager of Green Cab, the Fitchburg resident is the vice-chair of the Dane County Libertarian Party. He unsuccessfully challenged state Rep. Robb Kahl (D-Monona) in 2014. He says he’s attracting voters based on his anti-war stance and support of marijuana legalization.
Anderson bumped into Johnson while campaigning at the Racine County Fair in August. After posing for a picture with his opponent, Anderson says Johnson urged him to drop out.
“He turned to me and said, ‘You know, you’re having a pretty bad effect on my campaign,’” recalls Anderson. “He said, ‘This is a really important election and I hope you reconsider because we can’t let Senator Feingold get elected.’”
The Johnson campaign denies this claim. Johnson spokesman Brian Reisinger said in a statement. “Ron had a brief conversation with him and took a photo, but he never asked him to drop out of the race.”
While third-party candidates are attracting attention in the presidential race, it doesn’t mean they’re doing well down the ballot. The recent Marquette Law School poll has Libertarian Party presidential candidate Gary Johnson at 9 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at 3 percent.
But Gilbert says the relatively high poll numbers for third-party candidates in the presidential contest aren’t translating into votes for Anderson. He received 4 percent support in the last Marquette Law School survey.
“Feingold and [Ron] Johnson are not as unpopular as the two major-party presidential candidates,” says Gilbert. “So Gary Johnson is benefiting from factors that Phil Anderson doesn’t have.... It’s hard to say what, if any, effect Anderson is having on the Senate race.”
In an Oct. 14 interview with conservative talk show host Charlie Sykes, Johnson floated the idea that ticket-splitters may be his path to victory. “She’s going to need somebody in the Senate to keep a pretty close watch on her and be a check-and-balance on her power,” Johnson said.
Johnson — who declined numerous requests for an interview with Isthmus —claims the Republicans are already providing that check on power by refusing to give Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, Judge Merrick Garland, an up or down vote. “Instead of a lame duck president and Senate nominating and confirming, a new president and Senate — elected by the people only a few months from now — should make that important decision,” Johnson said in May.
Feingold counters that Johnson’s refusal to vote on Garland’s confirmation “disqualifies him from being in office.”
“This is a totally partisan move that shows Senator Johnson has no respect for the Constitution whatsoever,” says Feingold in a phone interview with Isthmus.
While in office, Feingold was in a similar position. In 2001, Democrats were threatening to filibuster President George W. Bush’s nominee for attorney general, John Ashcroft. Feingold broke with his own party to stop the procedural block.
At his Oct. 17 Green Bay rally, Trump said the media was “poisoning the minds of the voters.” There was no mention of Johnson or any other Republican during his 50-minute speech. He predicted his own victory in Wisconsin on Election Day.
“You know why I’m here? I’m here because everyone’s calling me. Everyone’s calling saying we’re going to win Wisconsin,” he said to 3,000 supporters. “It’s not so traditional for a Republican to be in this position. Mostly they say, well, we are going to have to skip Wisconsin. Not me. We are going to win Wisconsin.”
Even if he won’t say his name, a Trump victory may be Johnson’s best hope of returning to Washington.
