Candidates Kevin Nicholson and Kelda Roys could leverage their outsider status in their respective races. Nicholson's opponent, Leah Vukmir, was first elected to the Legislature in 2002; Roys served two terms in the Assembly but hasn't been in public office since 2013.
It could be that the worst thing that could have happened to Leah Vukmir was to win the endorsement of her party. And it could turn out that the best thing to happen to Kelda Roys was to lose a congressional race.
Both state party conventions are now behind us and the results suggest that some seismic shifts might be underway.
Republican stalwarts at their convention in May voted overwhelmingly to endorse Vukmir, a state senator who also served in the Assembly, over Kevin Nicholson, a former Marine and one-time Democrat who is running for his first public office. The party endorsement isn’t final, as both still need to compete in the primary on Aug. 14 for the right to take on Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin in the fall.
Nicholson is backed by some heavy-hitter third-party players and he has led in some early polling. Despite Vukmir gaining her party’s backing, which comes complete with help in organizing and fundraising, observers believe the two candidates will fight a hard and possibly bitter primary through the summer. And in the era of Donald Trump, having the establishment party backing may be a net detriment to Vukmir in the primary.
For their part, Democrats heard from all 10 candidates running in their primary (also to be held on Aug. 14) at their convention this past weekend. The party doesn’t make a formal endorsement. Instead, WisPolitics conducted a straw poll and the overwhelming winner was Kelda Roys, a former two-term state representative from Madison’s north side who lost a race in 2012 for Baldwin’s open congressional seat to Mark Pocan.
Roys got 23 percent of the 800 or so votes, about twice as much as her nearest competitor. A campaign-button vendor said he didn’t sell a single button for either of the candidates who have led in formal general voter polling — state Superintendent Tony Evers and Madison Mayor Paul Soglin — while Roys’ buttons got scooped up. Evers finished in a pack of seven candidates who got between nine and 11 percent of the straw vote at the convention, while Soglin got only one vote and finished dead last.
If all that sounds confusing, it’s a confusing and unsettled time. The common thread may be that outsiders are in. Nicholson is a military veteran who has never held office running against a certified member of the GOP establishment. Roys served four years in public office, but what might matter most is that, at 38, she is the youngest candidate in the Democratic field and a mother who gave birth to her second child just before starting her campaign. What Nicholson and Roys have in common is that they are fresh faces, not currently holding any office, and different from their opponents and from what might be expected as standard-issue offerings in their party’s primaries.
When you add to all this the footnote that longtime Secretary of State Doug La Follette barely won a majority in the straw poll over unknown challenger Madison Ald. Arvina Martin, you get a sense that a movement is underway.
If you’re an incumbent or perceived as an entrenched political figure of any kind, August could prove uncomfortably hot.
