David Michael Miller
When the Democrats hold their first debate for the party’s gubernatorial nomination they should check with the local fire marshal about room capacity. And that’s just for the candidates on the stage.
No such debate has been set yet for the primary matchup, which will take place a year from now, but you can be sure there will be plenty of forums before the election. The winner of the nomination will almost certainly face incumbent Republican Gov. Scott Walker, who is expected to officially announce his bid for a third term soon.
At last count there were no less than 15 to 18 Dems either officially in the race, or at various stages of thinking about it.
Those who have officially announced include Milwaukee businessman Andy Gronik, state Rep. Dana Wachs of Eau Claire, state Superintendent of Public Schools Tony Evers, who has come out swinging, and political newcomer Bob Harlow.
Those who have said they are considering a run are enough to field a baseball team. Two potential candidates who now hold state office are Sen. Kathleen Vinehout from Alma and Rep. Gordon Hintz of Oshkosh. And there are two current local office holders in Madison Mayor Paul Soglin and Jefferson County District Attorney Susan Happ.
We also have two former Madison state representatives in Kelda Helen Roys and Brett Hulsey.
In addition to Harlow, there are five more potential candidates who have never held office before: Sheboygan businessman Kurt Kober, Cross Plains small business owner Michele Doolan, clean elections activist Mike McCabe, union leader Mahlon Mitchell and former Democratic State Party Chair Matt Flynn. Of course, McCabe, Mitchell and Flynn are not new to politics.
This is pretty remarkable. When Democrats met for their annual convention in June there were no major candidates who had announced. A couple of months later we have more than a dozen who are in officially or seriously considering a run.
At this point Democrats would be smart to welcome all comers. A crowded field is nothing but good for them.
A hotly contested primary requires the ultimately successful candidate to weather attacks and hone a message. The Democrats’ last candidate in 2014, Mary Burke, was a fine, intelligent person, but she would have benefitted from a primary. It would have prepared her for the hard hits just like the Packers need training camp and preseason games to get ready for the fall.
It will also give the winning candidate lots of free media and increased name recognition going into the general election as well as providing the boost that only a primary election victory over a crowded field can. And it will make it trickier for the GOP to manage its inevitable character assassination attacks against challengers since the party won’t know who to really stick it to until after the primary.
So, for the most part, a vigorous primary is a good thing. On the other hand, the greatest danger of a crowded primary is that candidates could be tempted to target a very small, but passionate, primary audience with a message that could win enough votes to squeak through a primary, but that will hurt them among the larger group of more moderate general elections voters.
That could happen but I think it’s more likely that Democrats are so eager to beat Walker, and make a statement against President Trump, that they will look for the most electable nominee.
But even the definition of electable is up for grabs. Nobody is more of a blue-suited-flag-lapel-pin typical politician than Scott Walker. He plays that game so well that it’s unlikely that anyone else can beat him at it. So the Dems might be better off with someone with a nontraditional flavor.
Nobody saw Lee Sherman Dreyfus coming in 1976 or Tommy Thompson in 1986 or Russ Feingold in 1992 or Barack Obama in 2008 or Trump last year. (Okay, so surprises are often good except when they’re a disaster.) My point is that if you’re looking to sort out a crowded field, you might start by weeding out anyone who looks to be trying to compete with Walker on his own turf.
The important thing is that there are no clear favorites in this field, but nine or 10 candidates who are viable. This is good. It means that there will be spirited discussions, lots of energized volunteers and activists and, for a long while, no clear target for the bad guys to shoot at.
So find a big hall, start the debates, but make sure you check with the fire marshal first.
