Many Wisconsin progressives have lost hope of seeing a Democratic majority in the state Legislature before the next round of redistricting in 2022. Increasingly, Democrats have started to put all of their energy into the 2018 gubernatorial election. But electing a Democratic governor, particularly in a midterm election, is by no means a certainty.
Besides, Democrats can still win a majority in the Wisconsin Senate.
It’s true the Assembly is a lost cause, at least until 2023. Those districts have been so effectively gerrymandered that Republicans will retain a majority even with the largest of Democratic waves. Wikileaks could post a video of each and every member of the Assembly Republican caucus spitting on Vince Lombardi’s grave and conservatives would still keep a 10-seat majority.
The Senate maps aren’t as dire. Gerrymandering gives Senate Republicans an edge, that’s for sure, but the larger Senate districts make it harder to carve out the overwhelming advantages seen in the Assembly.
Republicans control the Wisconsin State Senate 19-14. Democrats need to flip three seats in order to capture the majority.
The good news: Democrats already have one likely pick-up in District 18.
Republicans won that district by a handful of votes in 2012. This time, the Democratic candidate, Winnebago County Executive Mark Harris, is respected and well known. Oddly enough, Harris got a big boost from the Republicans. They passed a law making it illegal to simultaneously serve as a county executive and as a member of the Legislature. That law effectively applies to only one person — Mark Harris. The whole incident made Harris look strong and capable. After all, his opponents viewed him as a threat worthy of legislative action.
Here’s the bad news: The other contested seats, which all lean Republican, will be a lot harder for Democrats to win.
There are a handful of seats where Dems do have a shot at an upset victory — Sen. Tom Tiffany in northern Wisconsin, Sen. Luther Olsen in central Wisconsin and Sen. Sheila Harsdorf in northwestern Wisconsin are vulnerable.
Tiffany’s extreme anti-conservation legislation could hurt him. Voters in northern Wisconsin value water and land quality. Olsen and Harsdorf earned reputations as political moderates in moderate districts. But Harsdorf has drifted to the right since 2010, and Olsen has been a reliable party line vote for the garbage legislation spewing forth from the majority.
Republicans won all of these seats by a comfortable margin in 2012. But conditions look better for Democrats this time around.
State level Democrats underperformed across the state in 2012. Many local Democrats received fewer votes in their district than President Obama. I believe fatigue from the recall elections is partially to blame. The Democratic base was exhausted and defeated. Voters tired of the constant cycle of elections wanted to give Republicans a chance.
Wisconsinites have now seen what happens when Republicans have free rein to implement their agenda. That’s reflected in Gov. Scott Walker’s abysmal approval rating. Democrats can tie these Republican senators to an unpopular governor. It’s the strategy employed by Republicans in 2010. They dragged down Democratic senators by connecting them to Gov. Jim Doyle. That worked out pretty well for Republicans.
State races are usually driven by the presidential ticket, and things are looking good for Democrats. Donald Trump is going to act as a drag on Republicans all across the country. It’s not a good look to have the leader of a party picking fights with babies and dead soldiers’ families. GOP leaders are desperate to distance themselves from Trump — Walker, U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson and House Speaker Paul Ryan all skipped Trump’s rally in Green Bay on Aug. 5.
Hillary Clinton’s lead has grown since the Democratic convention, and she’ll open up a bigger lead after she wipes the floor with Trump in the debates.
If there is any hope of pulling out an upset, Democrats need to improve their fundraising efforts. Tiffany’s 2012 campaign outspent his opponent by an almost six-to-one margin — $174,268 to $29,788.
Any scenario where Democrats retake the Senate requires they hold all of their current seats. Republicans will spend big to try to unseat Senate Minority Leader Jennifer Schilling of La Crosse. That race will be a distraction, drawing away dollars and volunteers that could be used to campaign against Tiffany, Olsen and Harsdorf.
Even winning one of these long-shot seats would give Democrats a nice burst of momentum. Democrats would only need to flip one seat in 2018 to win the majority. The Democrats completely bungled their attempt to win retiring Sen. Dale Schultz’s seat in 2014, handing far-right Sen. Howard Marklein an easy win. If Democrats run a decent campaign, they have an opportunity to defeat that crucial seat next time.
It won’t be easy for Democrats to retake the state Senate but it is an important fight, a worthy counterpart to a strong 2018 gubernatorial candidate. The alternative is another decade lost to gerrymandering.
Alan Talaga co-writes the Off the Square cartoon with Jon Lyons and blogs at isthmus.com/madland.