David Michael Miller
The latest Marquette University poll revealed that Donald Trump’s hateful campaign is tanking in Wisconsin. That matches a nationwide trend of a Trump freefall as numerous sexual abuse allegations have surfaced against the Republican presidential nominee. The poll aggregators at FiveThirtyEight, as of Oct. 17, give Hillary Clinton a greater than 85% chance of winning the election.
At the tail end of one of the ugliest, most soul-draining presidential campaigns in recent memory, it’s tempting for Democrats to sit back and relax. The drive to knock on doors and get people to the polls can let up when the lead becomes comfortable. But, with less than three weeks to go until Election Day, this is a terrible time for progressives to get complacent.
First of all, a small part of me worries that Trump voters could be underrepresented in the polls. Backing Trump is pretty embarrassing right now and something a number of voters won’t do in public. In the Marquette poll, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson had the support of 11 percent of Wisconsin poll respondents. But how many of these folks are really going to vote Libertarian on Election Day?
Even if Trump is totally done for, there are still plenty of other races Democrats should be worried about. U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, who is still backing Trump, pulled within two points of opponent Russ Feingold in the latest Marquette poll. All of those Gary Johnson supporters are boosting Johnson’s numbers. Those Johnson and Johnson voters, not to be confused with the baby shampoo company, are a sizable constituency that shouldn’t be ignored.
Then, there are the significant state Senate races around Wisconsin. In particular, the battle between Sen. Luther Olsen (R-Ripon) and Waupaca Mayor Brian Smith has become toxic. Democrats are alleging that Olsen engaged in a convoluted pay-to-play scandal. Which is odd because there are plenty of bad votes Dems can criticize Olsen on that don’t require a conspiracy theory. Republicans are accusing Smith of misusing government resources because somebody sent some campaign emails to his mayoral email address, even though Smith replied telling the sender to stop doing that. Holding Smith responsible for these emails is akin to holding me accountable for the spam emails that land in my inbox from The Gap.
Weird, manufactured scandals like the ones in the Olsen/Smith race come out when races are tight. Both sides are trying to find some advantage in a close race that could determine who controls the state Senate next year. These relatively quiet local elections end up having large impacts but they get drowned out by the cacophony of the presidential race.
Turnout matters. In 2012, the mid-October Marquette poll had Tammy Baldwin and Tommy Thompson polling within the margin of error in that Senate race, a clear parallel to this year’s Feingold/Johnson race. Baldwin ended up winning by six points because Democrats turned out to the polls.
The presidential election season is abysmally long. It is easy to forget that we still have state and federal governments that need to get things done come January. In order to pass progressive policies over the next two years, Democrats need a wave of support, not just a safe Clinton win.
On the national level, President Hillary Clinton is going to need a supportive Congress to pass any progressive policy. Returning Russ Feingold to office is absolutely essential if Democrats hope to have a Senate majority.
A big Democratic election will also whittle down the Republican majority in the House. Some models show the potential for a Democratic House majority, something that was highly unlikely even a few weeks ago. To make that happen, Democrats will need to turn out en masse to support Tom Nelson against Mike Gallagher in Wisconsin’s 8th Congressional District. Heck, in a wave election, dairy farmer Sarah Lloyd could even take down Rep. Glenn “Martin Luther King Jr. Day shouldn’t be a holiday” Grothman in the 6th District.
Here in Wisconsin, the Republicans who control state government are already laying out their 2017 agenda, as confident and presumptive in their assumed victory as the villain in an 1980s ski movie. They are already planning new ways to drain money from public schools around the state. Rep. Jesse Kremer (R-Kewaskum) plans to reintroduce a discriminatory bathroom bill that ostracizes transgender students. A Democratic-controlled state Senate puts an end to six years of single-party rubber stamp state government.
Defeating Donald Trump is important but Democrats will only achieve a real victory by beating the candidates further down the ballot who support Trump’s policies and agenda.
Alan Talaga co-writes the Off the Square cartoon with Jon Lyons and blogs at isthmus.com/madland.
