I'm a little skeptical of the race-rating at this point. Last fall, when it appeared Obey would run for a 22nd term, the Cook Political Report downgraded his seat from "Solid Dem" to "likely Dem." Now Cook is rating the race a "toss-up." But apparently CQ Politics is still calling it "leans Dem," which suggests they perceive a slight advantage for Democrats.
The district has a Partisan Voter Index of D +3, which means Democrats typically have a three point advantage in voter preference. However, that is not a big cushion during a midterm which may very well lose the Democrats their House majority.
We won't know much until we start seeing some polls. As an officeholder since 1998, Lassa has some name-recognition in part of the district, even though she hasn't been campaigning all over the area like Duffy. I'd be very interested to know what percentage of likely voters knows each candidate. The Real World candidate will definitely get some extra media coverage that will help get his name out there, in the same way that Leinenkugel will in the Senate race.
