Tommy Washbush
The stakes for the 2022 U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin couldn’t be higher. Just ask Wisconsin senior Sen. Ron Johnson. Democrats want to “fundamentally transform what America is,” according to the Republican incumbent.
“We know what it looks like now. It’s open borders, 40-year high inflation, record gas prices, rising crime, the indoctrination of our children. [Democrats] are fundamentally destroying our nation,” Johnson said during a June 13 interview with WIBA-AM (1310) host Vicki McKenna. “We’re not trying to divide this country. It’s the other side. It’s the media. It’s the big tech, social media giants. They’re the ones dividing us.”
Wherever the blame lies, Johnson faces a reelection bid in one of the most politically divided states in the nation. Historic election trends suggest Republicans should fare well in the upcoming midterms. But Johnson is the only GOP senator on the ballot this November in a state won by President Joe Biden. He’s also one of the least popular senators in the country. The latest Marquette Law School poll found only 37 percent of Wisconsin voters view him favorably. UW-La Crosse political science professor Anthony Chergosky says Johnson “doesn’t act like a senator from a swing state.”
“He’s highly outspoken on all kinds of conservative media outlets and he speaks the language of the Republican base, always has,” says Chergosky. “Combine Johnson’s style with the political characteristics of Wisconsin, it’s a recipe for division and polarization. What makes him beloved by his base, makes him despised by Democrats.”
Isthmus interviewed the top four contenders vying to take on Johnson in the Nov. 8 general election: Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Four other Democrats are also on the ballot for the Aug. 9 primary but aren’t polling above one percent. You can watch our full Zoom interviews with the candidates and read our ongoing coverage of the U.S. Senate race at isthmus.com.
“Primary races can be an opportunity for political parties to define their identity and what it means to be a Democrat or a Republican. We see that happening in the GOP primary race for governor, which has been a lot more fiery,” says Chergosky. “The Democratic primary for Senate has been very different. The candidates aren’t arguing over what it means to be a Democrat in 2022. They are focused on what makes them uniquely suited, as a Democratic politician, to beat Ron Johnson in what will likely be a very difficult general election.”
Barnes, Godlewski, Lasry and Nelson all tout progressive values and paint Johnson as out of touch with the Wisconsin electorate. The candidates vying for the Democratic nomination don’t differ much on policy positions. They all are pro-choice, believe the 2020 election wasn’t stolen, and want to move towards universal health care, among other liberal legislative goals that are unlikely to happen in the current political climate.
Carroll University political scientist Lilly Goren says no candidate “seems to have this nomination locked up.”
“At least from what I’ve seen, what motivates Democrats is opposition to the policies that Ron Johnson champions. Johnson is the enemy,” says Goren. “Democrats don’t want to see their eventual nominee bloodied by negative attacks before the general election.”
That’s made it tricky for the candidates to separate themselves from the pack and made the race largely about personal experience and background. Personal wealth, however, might prove the defining factor in the race.
“Being able to self-finance is a more important factor during the primary than the general because outside groups and the Democratic Party aren’t weighing in much if at all,” says Goren. “As candidates make their case to primary voters, it’s obviously easier to do that when you have the resources to get your message out there.”
Tommy Washbush
Barnes, born and raised in Milwaukee, is running as the candidate who can excite the Democratic base — he was Gov. Tony Evers’ hip young running mate just four years ago. Before serving as lieutenant governor, he represented Milwaukee in the Wisconsin Assembly for two terms. He has a long list of endorsements from former and current Democratic politicians as well as such national figures as Sen. Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts, who traveled to Wisconsin in May to campaign for Barnes, and Sen. Cory Booker from New Jersey.
Godlewski, who grew up in Eau Claire, also won statewide office in 2018 and has served the last four years as state treasurer. She prominently shares on her campaign website that she’s a “fifth-generation Wisconsinite, working mom, daughter of two public school teachers, and product of a union home.” She’s also the co-founder of a “social impact venture” fund and is independently wealthy.
Lasry is the son of a billionaire hedge fund manager from New York City and the youngest candidate in the race. He moved to Wisconsin in 2014 when his family (and other investors) purchased the Milwaukee Bucks from former U.S. Sen. Herb Kohl. Lasry has made inroads in Democratic circles while serving as an executive for the Bucks. He has won the support of several unions and politicians, including Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson. Dane County Assembly Reps. Lisa Subeck and Shelia Stubbs have also endorsed the political newcomer.
Nelson, who was born in St. Paul but spent his formative years in Appleton, likens himself to progressive maverick Russ Feingold and proudly calls himself an underdog. He’s the former majority leader of the Wisconsin Assembly and has served for more than a decade as county executive of Outagamie County, which Trump won by 10 points in 2020.
Barnes has been leading in the Marquette Law School polls in recent months but Lasry is nipping at his heels. Godlewski and Nelson are struggling to crack support above 10 percent but, with about a month to go before the primary, about a third of Democratic voters surveyed don’t know which candidate they will cast a ballot for. Craig Gilbert, a fellow at the Marquette University Law School and a former political reporter for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, has been studying and reporting on elections for decades. He describes the Dems’ primary race as “sleepy.”
“The general perception in the political world is that it’s Barnes’ race to lose. He’s from Milwaukee and has a foothold there. He presumably has some support in Madison because of his time as lieutenant governor and as a legislator,” says Gilbert. “But I think it’s fair to say now that no one in the field has checked all the boxes that would let them run away with the race. Those being popular support, money, and being seen on paper as a great general election candidate.”
The latest campaign finance reports show Lasry has bankrolled his candidacy with at least $6 million out of his own pocket and another $3 million from donors. Godlewski has given her own campaign more than $3 million and raised $2.7 million. Barnes has raised the most from individual donors, more than $4 million since he entered the race. Nelson trails the pack in fundraising with $1.5 million raised from donors.
Barnes and Nelson lack personal fortunes to draw upon and it shows when it comes to money spent on TV ads. WisPolitics reports that as of mid-June, Lasry has spent more than $7.7 million on TV spots. Godlewski has spent more than $2 million. Barnes has spent $700,000. And Nelson has bought $276,000 worth of airtime.
Chergosky doesn’t believe Nelson has a path to the nomination but he still might leave his mark on the primary.
“I think Nelson hurts Barnes. I think they have a similar pitch to voters and a similar style. So let’s say that Lasry gets 35 percent of the vote, Barnes gets 34 percent, and Nelson gets 7 percent. Well, then the reason Mandela Barnes is not the nominee is Tom Nelson. So I do see the potential for Nelson to be a spoiler,” says Chergosky. “Godlewski and Lasry are also somewhat similar in presenting themselves as more middle of the road and in touch with the areas of the state Democrats have really struggled in. I do see those candidates potentially competing for the same bucket of voters as well.”
Gilbert says what happened in the 1988 Wisconsin Democratic primary for U.S. Senate somewhat mirrors what’s happening in 2022. In that election, former Gov. Tony Earl was the perceived Democratic frontrunner. Secretary of State Doug La Follette, who is running this year for his 12th term, was also a candidate in the race. But just a few months before the primary, a political neophyte named Herb Kohl — backed by his own personal fortune — jumped in and would go on to soundly win the Democratic primary and a Senate seat.
“This is a classic example of a candidate coming out of nowhere and dominating. Kohl dumped a ton of his own money into the race which was head-turning and unfamiliar in state politics at the time. People accused Kohl of trying to buy the seat. But he was ‘Nobody’s senator but yours,’” says Gilbert, quoting Kohl’s famous campaign slogan. “Aside from the Milwaukee Bucks connection between Kohl and Lasry, which is kind of superficial, Lasry doesn’t have the deep, deep ties to the state that Kohl did. Kohl also was a lot better known to voters because of all his stores.”
In 2022, voters on both sides of the aisle also seem less fazed about candidates spending millions of their own money to win their party’s nomination.
“[GOP candidate for governor] Tim Michels and Alex Lasry are both spending a lot of their own money and that’s been part of why they are both viable candidates. To a lesser extent, I think that applies to Godlewski, too,” says Gilbert. “So self-financers spending a lot may be part of the debate for both parties this year. But it doesn’t seem to be the only thing driving the discussion like it was in 1988. And Kohl did end up serving in the Senate for three terms so you can’t say his strategy didn’t work.”
There’s a geographic component to who might ultimately win the Democratic Senate primary, too. Dane County could play an outsized role in selecting who will compete against Johnson in November. In the 2018 Democratic primary for governor, Dane County cast just 8,000 fewer ballots than Milwaukee County even though the latter has nearly double the population. Chergosky thinks Lasry’s connection to the Milwaukee Bucks and support from organized labor and local officials will make him competitive in Milwaukee County, where Barnes also has political roots. It’s less clear who Democrats in Dane County will back.
“A huge win in Dane County could be decisive. It’s the fastest growing county in the state and it’s become more Democratic as it grows,” says Chergosky. “But if voters are split in Dane and Milwaukee, that will make communities like La Crosse, Eau Claire and Green Bay more important in the outcome. I think it’s going to be close.”
Isthmus asked the top Democrats running for U.S. Senate in 2022 to select one issue, topic or policy position to highlight ahead of our recorded Zoom interviews with the candidates. This Q&A was edited for clarity and length. The candidates were not told what issue their opponents chose to spotlight. The interviews were recorded after a draft decision on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization was leaked, warning that the overturning of Roe v. Wade — the 1973 decision that legalized abortion — was imminent, but before the U.S. Supreme Court issued its final ruling.
Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes
Issue candidate selected to highlight: middle-class jobs
The middle class is the way to address so many other issues and challenges that we’re dealing with, issues that exist in urban centers as well as rural communities. When the Clean Air Act passed, new emissions laws required that vehicles have catalytic converters and we needed people to build them. My dad was one of them. He worked on an assembly line, third-shift for 30 years. He was one of thousands of people, along with his brother, who had good-paying jobs that they could support a family on. All because of the opportunity that was created when Congress took bold steps to address climate change. We have a moment to do it again. Climate change is already wreaking havoc on our communities all across Wisconsin from the cities to the farms. There is a once-in-a-generation storm that seems to come almost every year now. And that’s why we need bold, powerful, comprehensive action to address climate change that breathes new life into our manufacturing industry.
As a chair of the Governor’s Task Force on Climate Change, I’ve shown an ability, I have demonstrated the desire and willingness, and a level of effectiveness in bringing people together on all sides of this issue — from farmers to business execs, tribal leaders, and environmental activists. Together, we came up with a plan that will put Wisconsin in the driver’s seat of our future and that’s exactly the kind of leadership I intend to bring to the Senate. I’ll bring people together to curb greenhouse gas emissions by transitioning to 100 percent renewable energy as soon as possible. And also create good paying jobs by investing in clean energy manufacturing that will make sure our country is energy independent.
State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski
Issue candidate selected to highlight: reproductive rights
As the only woman in this race, I believe I bring a unique perspective on this issue. Let me tell you this is my nightmare and this is a nightmare for millions of other Wisconsinites who are at risk now of not being able to make healthcare decisions that’s best for them and their families. We’re going back to 1849. Wisconsin has this cruel abortion ban on the books where there’s no exception for rape or for incest. And it’s not even taking women back 50 years, we’re talking about bringing women back to before the Civil War, when my family was coming to the state. It’s horrifying. What’s also horrifying is we’re criminalizing doctors for making these decisions. Doctors could be sent to jail for up to six years, they could be fined thousands of dollars.
This isn’t, for me, just a bandwagon issue. Honestly, I’m frustrated with my own party. We’ve had the White House. We’ve had the Senate. And we’ve had the House. We’ve had 50 years to codify this and yet, we haven’t prioritized it. One of the reasons why I believe it hasn’t been prioritized is we need more pro-choice Democratic women at that U.S. Senate table fighting for this stuff. And that’s one of the reasons why I’ve come forward to talk about what Biden can do. He needs to be starting to think about executive orders. For example, making sure that when Medicaid patients have to go out-of-state, it covers, for example, abortion services. And so we’ve got to be creative in this moment, to make sure at the end of the day, we’re doing everything we can to support women and their families making these important healthcare decisions.
Alex Lasry
Issue candidate selected to highlight: climate change
I think climate change is one of the defining issues of our generation. This is an opportunity to make sure that we’re able to set Wisconsin on a path for the 21st century and ensure that we’re creating good paying union jobs and making Wisconsin the new greenbelt of the United States. One thing we do better than anyone is we build things. That is the history of Wisconsin and it’s what we do best. One of the ways that we can stem the tide of climate change and also make sure that we are actually energy independent, is to make sure that we’re manufacturing this new green tech here in Wisconsin. Electric car batteries. Wind turbines. Solar panels. We need to make sure that all of that manufacturing is coming right here to Wisconsin. That’s going to set us on a path towards not only stemming the growth of climate change, and making sure that we, my daughter, have a clean planet to live on. But also making sure that we’re setting up an economy for the 21st century.
That’s one of the things that I’ve done with the Fiserv Forum. We’ve shown that there doesn’t have to be this false choice between protecting the environment and creating good paying jobs. The Deer District and Fiserv Forum, I believe, is one of the most environmentally friendly arenas in North America. We’ve shown that you can create good paying union jobs by also making sure that you’re following and using progressive values to protect the climate. What I want to do as the next U.S. senator, partnering with Sen. Tammy Baldwin, is to invest in these types of new green manufacturing jobs to bring them here to Wisconsin.
Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson
Issue candidate selected to highlight: paper workers in Combined Locks, Wisconsin, the subject of Nelson’s book One Day Stronger: How One Union Local Saved a Mill and Changed an Industry — and What It Means for American Manufacturing
In my 17 years in elective office, this is far and away the high point. This is a really good example that embodies the spirit. This is a good example of how a community can come together and beat the odds by taking things into their own hands and doing some things that maybe cut across the grain. This story is how I worked with a local union to save a paper mill that was being auctioned off. It was auctioned off because a big bank, PNC Bank, came in and forced them into receivership. It was sold to a scrap dealer from California. But we objected to [the sale of the mill under receivership], went before a local judge, and we were able to prevail. It was a second chance. We put together a new business model bringing labor, management and local government to the table.
Within three months we had brought back 300 jobs, turned on three machines, and by the third business quarter, the workers were receiving their profit-sharing checks. I think that that is an incredible story and not just because there are tangible lessons to learn: That we can rejuvenate the labor movement, which is happening right now; help Wisconsin manufacturing; but also bring the kind of spirit and the values to Washington about what sets Wisconsin apart. Not just Outagamie County, the Fox Valley, but the state. I think there’s something very special. And I think that Washington could use some more Wisconsin values. And no, [Sen.] Ron Johnson does not embody Wisconsin values. He is the antithesis of Wisconsin values. This campaign cannot be more diametrically opposite than that.
See all of our Election 2022 coverage at isthmus.com/election2022.
