‘A political comeback for the ages’

Crowley bests Hong in primary, but will need her supporters for a November win

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When Gov. Tony Evers announced last summer he would not run for a third term in office, it was the first time in 16 years that an incumbent governor would leave the race for the office open. 

Cue a chaotic year for Democrats.

“If Hollywood scriptwriters came up with this plot, it would get thrown out as too unbelievable,” says Anthony Chergosky, professor of political science at UW-La Crosse.

Three of the seven candidates on the Aug 11 ballot weren’t even in the race by the time polls opened, but several still drew thousands of votes that could have decided the election. The emergent Democratic candidate, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, was once one of the drop-outs — until he decided to re-join the race in July.

It has echoes of that last open race for governor in 2010, when Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle announced he would not run for a third term. Then, as now, the sitting Milwaukee County Executive became the nominee. In 2010, he was a Republican. His name was Scott Walker.

It might not be a coincidence, says Chergosky. “Milwaukee is an electoral powerhouse, and any candidate would love to put up strong numbers in Milwaukee.”

But Crowley will also have to “work quickly to develop his political brand in the rest of Wisconsin,” adds Chergosky. So far, he has relied on an endorsement from Gov. Tony Evers and the fact that he’s not Francesca Hong, the democratic socialist candidate who was perceived as the front-runner but came up a few thousand votes short of Crowley.

“To everyone’s surprise, that worked,” says Chergosky, who calls Crowley’s win “a political comeback for the ages.” He adds that the Democratic nominee will need a new approach come Nov. 3, when he faces Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany, who cruised to a primary victory Tuesday, beating Andy Manske with more than 95% of the vote.

In a text message sent Wednesday morning to supporters, Tiffany said he “crushed the primary.” The campaign has been sending out text messages every day for months; Monday’s text took aim at Rep. Francesca Hong, whom he called “my SOCIALIST opponent.”

Many voters were in bed by the time the AP called the Democratic gubernatorial primary not for Hong, but for Crowley, just before 3 a.m. The Crowley campaign, anticipating the call, emailed a statement at 2:25 a.m.

“From day one, this campaign has been about what comes next for Wisconsin: making life more affordable, strengthening our schools, creating good-paying jobs, and making sure opportunity reaches every corner of our state,” said Crowley campaign manager Garren Randolph.

“Now, David is focused on bringing people together, earning the support of Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and anyone who believes Wisconsin is at its best when we work together and deliver results.”

In a victory speech Wednesday morning, Crowley referenced how some had framed the match-up between him and Hong. “This election is not about insiders versus outsiders. It’s not about the establishment versus progressives. It’s about building something bigger than any one campaign. It’s about building a movement, y’all. A movement that reaches every corner of Wisconsin.”

Hong reportedly conceded the race shortly after 2 a.m., hours after her supporters had gone home from an election watch party, and said she wouldn’t pursue a recount. In a statement on Wednesday, Hong congratulated Crowley: “I fully support him and look forward to working with him to defeat Congressman Tiffany in November.”

A Crowley surge

The narrow results caused election trackers to break the vote out into the hundredths of a percent. As of Wednesday morning, Crowley won 39.81% percent of the vote statewide. Hong had 39.33%, and Madison state Sen. Kelda Roys had 7.51%. Three others commanded a share that also could have tipped the primary: Joel Brennan with 4.69%, Sara Rodriguez with 4.13% and Mandela Barnes at 4.09%.

Polls had consistently predicted Hong would be the nominee, but Crowley, who re-entered the race in July with Evers’ endorsement, campaigned hard in the final weeks. So did his supporters, who often urged a vote for “electability” come Nov 3. Some claimed that a handful of Hong’s past statements would hurt her with voters around the state in the general election.

Tiffany, like Hong, could be painted as the extreme of his party, said UW-Madison professor Kathy Cramer, speaking Tuesday ahead of the primary results. Hong, a democratic socialist, holds views to the left of centrist Democrats, including staunch opposition to large data centers. Tiffany has continued to deny the results of the 2020 election as valid. “But you don’t see that in the commercials,” Cramer added. Instead, Tiffany’s commercials have been straightforward, showing him “spending time with family, doing normal Wisconsin things” and talking about economic concerns.

Hong, relying on digital messaging instead of traditional media campaigns, opted not to use TV ads altogether. That, Chergosky says, was a surprising decision — and one that might have helped Crowley.

By not running television ads, Hong missed out on a “key opportunity” to develop name recognition. Chergosky is also “surprised” Hong opted for national media interviews which surfaced old social media posts. He says those national appearances seemed “ill-timed.”

Roys’ role?

In the end, 20 counties went for Hong. Crowley won the other 52. And though she won her home base of Dane County, Hong didn’t clear the votes she needed in the solidly blue county to make up for losses around the state. In Dane County, Hong got 66,914 votes, or 44%, to David Crowley’s 55,732, or 36.7%. (All day-after vote counts are unofficial; votes will become “certified” in coming weeks.)

“Hong did not get the numbers she needed from Dane,” says Chergosky. “That could be for any number of reasons. One that I’m pretty confident in, is the role of Kelda Roys. Roys overperformed in Dane County relative to her statewide vote total.”

Roys, the Madison-area lawmaker who remained in the race despite showing low poll numbers, received 10.6% of the Dane County vote, or 16,190 votes.

But Chergosky cautions against oversimplifying: “In these close elections, we can point to a million different things that could have changed the outcome of the election, had something gone a different way. But I do think it is fair to note that Hong would have loved to do better in Dane County, and one potential explanation is that Roys remained in the campaign to the finish.”

The top factor in Crowley’s success, says Chergosky, was the endorsement from Evers.

“Tony Evers describes himself as boring and not a flashy type of politician. I think that can cause us to overlook the fact that most Democratic voters in Wisconsin really like him. His approval numbers within his own party are excellent,” says Chergosky, who says it’s a “prime example” of how much endorsements can matter in primary elections.

November will be Crowley’s first time facing a Republican opponent. When elected to a Milwaukee-area seat in the Legislature, Crowley never drew a GOP opponent. And when running for Milwaukee County executive in 2020, a nonpartisan office, Crowley narrowly beat fellow Democrat Chris Larson. Only in 2024, when running for reelection, did he face a challenge from an independent, and he won in a landslide.

At the Prairie Cafe and Bakery in Middleton, after a Wednesday morning unity breakfast among Democrats, Crowley called Evers his “secret weapon.” He also acknowledged he will need more help from Democrats “in order to defeat a MAGA extremist,” and promised to bring everyone to the table to do just that, adding,“We’ve got a lot of work to do.”

Some of that work involves winning over Hong’s large and loyal grassroots following. “I think Francesca Hong is going to have some real power to do that,” says Chergosky. “I think it's well worth watching how enthusiastic Hong is in backing Crowley, because although she came up just short, she ran a spirited campaign that generated enormous grassroots enthusiasm, and Crowley would love to be able to draw on that going into November.”