All eight Democrats running for governor will make their case to voters at a debate Wednesday night at the Madison Central Public Library. The Aug. 8 forum — organized by Isthmus, WORT 89.9 FM and The Progressive magazine — is open to public and will be broadcast live on the radio and online. The winner of the Aug. 14 primary will compete against Republican Gov. Scott Walker in November.
John Nichols, columnist for The Capital Times, says the Democratic contest for governor has been a “weird race.”
“What’s striking to me, is that nearly everyone I talk to across the state is exceptionally open to changing who they will vote for in the primary,” says Nichols. “There is this incredible desire to get some signal that tells [voters] someone is the right choice. And that’s all rooted in the argument that someone can beat Walker.”
On the Democratic primary ballot are State Superintendent of Schools Tony Evers, Milwaukee attorney Matt Flynn, activist Mike McCabe, Wisconsin firefighters union head Mahlon Mitchell, Kenosha attorney Josh Pade, former state Rep. Kelda Roys of Madison, Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, and state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout from Alma.
Nichols and Christian Schneider, a conservative Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist, agree that Evers is the Democrat to beat.
“It just doesn’t really seem like the other candidates are mounting a credible challenge to Evers,” says Schneider. “If that’s going to happen, it needs to be soon.”
Evers has been the frontrunner from the get go — he’s handily won every poll conducted on the Democratic candidates. But those same polls also show that a sizable chunk of the primary electorate doesn’t feel strongly about any candidate. Schneider is surprised that Roys hasn’t fared better in the polls. She’s secured endorsements from national groups like EMILY’s List, NARAL Pro-Choice America and the National Organization for Women. Even Eau Claire-based indie rockers Bon Iver endorsed her.
“To the Democratic electorate statewide, it seems like Kelda would be a pretty appealing candidate,” says Schneider. “Everyone thought that with the amount of money Kelda has raised, she’d be able to make a run at this thing. But it doesn’t look like she’s picking up that much traction. If it wasn’t for [Pade] she’d be...last in the polls. Can she overcome that huge deficit?”
The July 18 Marquette law school poll shows Evers with 31 percent support from registered Democratic voters and all the other candidates in single digits. But even more voters, 38 percent, weren’t sure who they would vote for in the primary.
Nichols says that Roys has silenced many doubters who dismissed her candidacy early on and thinks “there’s no question she’s run a good campaign.”
“[Roys] still seems the most likely to close that gap with Evers. What’s odd to me is that neither Kelda nor Mahlon has taken off in the polling,” says Nichols. “I had expected that, particularly since Kelda had a really good June, I thought she’d get a bigger bump.”
Nichols says Mitchell appears to be relying on labor unions to turn out votes for him. The Madison firefighter has support from several labor unions, including the Wisconsin AFL-CIO, International Union of Operating Engineers Locals 139 and 420, Service Employees International Union Wisconsin State Council and American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 32.
“My sense with Mahlon is that it’s a different game than some of the others. For him, it’s whether organization can pull people to the polls,” says Nichols. “He’s got folks knocking on doors especially in Milwaukee. He’s got the unions. How does that all pull together? Historically, Mahlon has a lot of the endorsements that indicate he’ll have a strong showing.”
Nichols cautions against counting out McCabe or Vinehout. Both have been focusing on attracting voters outside of Dane and Milwaukee counties — the state’s Democratic strongholds.
“Their supporters seem to be more committed. But what’s interesting, and perhaps a problem, is those passionate voters could back either Vinehout or McCabe,” says Nichols. “They are kind of comfortable with swinging between the two of them.”
As for Soglin, Schneider is glib about the mayor’s low-key “supper club” campaign.
“Maybe he’s just really hungry,” says Schneider. “At one event, I heard him talking about the dawn of electricity. If progressives are forward looking, I’m not sure he’s the guy.”
Soglin did release his first television ad this weekend.
“I’ll tell you, I’ve met plenty of people who say they are voting for Paul Soglin. Because no other candidate has emerged as the clear alternative to Evers, I think that could benefit Paul,” Nichols says. “Maybe they would have voted for someone else if another candidate had a last minute surge. But voters have made a connection to Paul over the years…. He’s going to look like a genius if he wins.”
Regardless of who Democrats select to take on Walker, it could be the governor’s toughest election yet. It’s the first time since he was elected governor in 2010 that a Republican president is in the White House — and that president is the polarizing Donald Trump. While Democrats may have more enthusiasm on their side, Schneider says that Walker is no sitting duck.
“From Walker’s perspective, all the numbers seem to be right where they should be. His approval rating is right where it was in 2014 when he won. His support seems to be rock solid,” says Schneider, who adds that the governor’s multi-billion dollar Foxconn deal may not be as big a liability as Dems hope. “It’s going to give [Walker] a chance to talk about his record of job creation and take Dems off the message that he didn’t live up to his 250,000 jobs-pledge. It also seems like Democrats are rooting for Foxconn to fail which is a message [Walker] can use.”
However, Nichols says that Scott Walker, “more than anyone else in Wisconsin,” is communicating that Scott Walker can be beat.
“Back in January, he’s the one tweeting about a blue wave,” Nichols says. “He’s the guy who tried not to have special elections because of a clear fear that Democrats will win. Scott Walker is a smart enough politician to know that this isn’t likely to be the best year for him.”
At the Aug. 8 forum, candidates will be asked about a variety of issues. This reporter will moderate the 90-minute debate, which starts at 7 p.m. Molly Stentz, news director for WORT, Bill Lueders, managing editor of The Progressive, and Judith Davidoff, editor of Isthmus, will all ask the candidates questions.
