Tommy Washbush
In 2006, Scott Walker dropped out of his first gubernatorial campaign six months before the primaries to make way for Congressman Mark Green.
Walker endorsed his former Republican opponent and campaigned for him across the state — a move that scored him big points with the GOP and gave him time to plot his next campaign. And when incumbent Gov. Jim Doyle defeated Green in the November election, Walker was up next. He won the governor’s race in 2010 and has been seemingly unstoppable since.
“His departure from the 2006 race showed he’s savvy enough to know how and when to pick his shots,” Brian Fraley, a public relations consultant who served as a Walker spokesman during that time, told Politico in March. “He bowed out because his only path to victory as an underfunded candidate was to run a scorched-earth campaign against his fellow Republicans.”
Walker’s strategic decision to step aside in 2006 proved to be a launchpad for a truly impressive political career — one that has taken the 47-year-old politician from Milwaukee County executive to a frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination in just five years.
But Walker’s White House aspirations came to a humiliating end this week.
The one-time Iowa GOP frontrunner and champion of conservative values, the favored candidate of influential right-wing billionaires Charles and David Koch, the unintimidated governor, thrice elected in Democratic-leaning Wisconsin, the destroyer of organized labor who promised to “wreak havoc” on Washington and the man who declared that his candidacy was anointed by God abruptly aborted his presidential bid on Monday, just 70 days after entering the race.
“It’s a really stunning fall from grace,” says Mike Wagner, a UW-Madison professor of journalism and political science, who thinks Walker got out of the race “way too early.”
Walker won’t be the next commander in chief. But will his decision to withdraw early benefit his political future, as it did in 2006?
While it’s tempting to draw parallels between Monday’s announcement and the 2006 race, there are key differences, Fraley writes in an email to Isthmus.
In his first gubernatorial campaign, Walker had little support from the GOP establishment in Wisconsin and lacked a large network of donors, Fraley says. Those Republicans who liked Walker personally thought he should “wait his turn.”
By the time he announced his bid for the presidency, Walker had proven himself as a conservative leader and had amassed establishment support, a huge donor base and a Super PAC that was bringing in millions, Fraley adds. But it wasn’t enough to separate him from the large pack of GOP contenders.
“Rush Limbaugh’s love affair with Donald Trump’s disruptive nature cost Walker dearly,” Fraley says. “Bravado and snark have become more valuable political assets than conviction, records and agendas.”
Wagner offered a similar assessment of the differences between Walker’s two failed campaigns. A better comparison to Walker’s current situation, he says, is Mitt Romney’s 2008 withdrawal and support of GOP presidential nominee John McCain.
“Romney ended up being the nominee in 2012 after that early dropout,” Wagner said. “It could be that [Walker] has some designs on running in the future.”
So what’s next for Walker? Wagner says his amicable departure from the GOP field leaves the door open for consideration as vice president or another high-level cabinet position in a Republican administration. He could run for another term as governor in Wisconsin, which does not have term limits, but reelection might be difficult — his approval rating at home has dropped considerably with his presidential campaign.
Other options for Walker could include challenging U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2018 or perhaps starting a foundation working on a political issue. But Wagner predicts that Walker’s political career is far from over.
“He’s a young guy who’s won three state elections,” Wagner says. “He likely has a future in American politics and in Wisconsin.”
