David Michael Miller
Ridership on Madison Metro has been growing for decades but is down 8% this year. Is it a new trend or a sporadic dip?
We’re riding the bus less often this year.
In the 12 months ending May 31, total Metro Transit ridership was down 8.8% according to a summary recently shared with the Madison Transit and Parking Commission. Weekend ridership on routes with hourly service dropped far more, between 20% and 30%, according to a July report by the Madison Area Transportation Planning Board (MATB).
It’s too early to say whether it’s part of a larger trend or just a momentary blip, but Madison Metro officials are certainly taking notice.
“It’s definitely a concern,” says Bill Schaefer, MATB transportation planning manager. On the other hand, he notes, “We’ve had ridership increasing 4% or 5% a year until recently, and that was not a sustainable metric.”
While ridership on Metro has been growing for decades, there have been sporadic spurts and dips.
Metro officials suggest a few reasons for this year’s drop. One could be all the new, massive housing developments, increasing population density on the isthmus. More people with business in the downtown area can simply walk.
“Between employees and students, campus makes up about half of all ridership,” Schaefer points out. “Any impact, any reduction in the number of students taking the bus — that obviously has an impact. So, all those high-rises going up close to campus, with students moving closer, that could be a small piece of it.”
Another possible explanation for the drop is positive. Recent mild winters allow people to bike earlier in the spring and later in the fall, “which is a good thing,” adds Schaefer. “As long as they use an alternative mode, we’re happy.”
However, there’s also evidence that good weather may not be the culprit. “Some of our drops, to be very candid, are also happening when we compare one warm-weather month to another warm-weather month,” says Chuck Kamp, Metro’s general manager.
So far there’s only anecdotal evidence, but numbers will come soon. Local bike travel has been studied since late autumn, as part of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Household Travel Survey. Its collection of supplementary Madison-area data is funded by the city and the Wisconsin Department of Transportation. Results will be available in the fall of 2017.
The real cause of the ridership drop may be something more prosaic: gas prices. They’ve dropped significantly since 2014. The way fuel prices affect public transit isn’t simple. Looking at transit across the country, “For bus systems our size, the ridership is down about 5%,” says Kamp.
Meanwhile, “In big cities, where you have more buses and more trains, ridership is still up,” he says. The calculus that prompts people to ride transit varies by location.
In the largest cities, where driving and parking are always a hassle, fewer people reach for their car keys when gas prices drop. Convenience and reliability trump fuel costs. If you live where buses or trains come frequently, why bother with the car?
“What is a reality in our world of transit business is, the more service you provide, the more your ridership begins to be resilient to gas price increases or other factors,” says Kamp. But in smaller cities, “when gas goes from $3.50 a gallon to $2 a gallon, we have a little more difficulty holding onto our ridership than New York City or Chicago.”
Less extensive weekend service may explain the 20% to 30% decline on those days. “I think part of it has to do with the reduction in service levels going back now five or 10 years,” says Schaefer. “When your budget’s tight and you’re looking where you allocate service, weekdays tend to get priorities.”
Some major corridors, such as East Washington Avenue, have weekend buses only once an hour. “It’s just not enough,” says Schaefer. “It’s not frequent enough for people who have a choice to take the bus for those trips. People say, ‘Okay, well I’m just going to find another option now.’ It’s just not convenient.”
Mick Rusch, Metro Transit marketing and customer service manager, says there’s not much Metro can do about it.
“We don’t have any immediate plans to add more frequent trips on weekends,” says Rusch. “We are still studying this issue to get a clearer picture of what exactly is happening, and [what] might be needed to improve ridership during this time.”
Metro is limited in what it can do because there aren’t many funding options. The city is cash-strapped. Fare increases are unpopular and hurt those who rely on the system the most. And in the 2011 budget, the Legislature dissolved a recently formed Dane County regional transit authority that would have allowed a half-cent sales tax to fund a larger, more comprehensive Metro system. These factors force Metro to focus on maintaining the status quo, rather than expansion.
“In 2015, we had 39 buses at or past replacement age,” says Rusch. “This is approximately 18% of our total fleet.”
Adds Kamp: “I think we’re really at the situation — to borrow a Yogi Berra quote — ‘If you can’t grow you can’t grow.’”
Not only does Metro need more buses, it also needs more space to park them. The city has purchased land on Nekoosa Trail where a $35 million bus garage could go, but it doesn’t have the money to construct it. Metro officials were disappointed to learn the city again missed out on its application for a $17.5 million grant to help pay for the garage, which would hold 50 to 70 buses.
Kamp looks far into the future and sees Metro Transit providing service to a much larger area, with far greater speed.
“Our area is growing,” he says. “Epic is in Verona. Many of its new employees live in Madison.” Ridership on Epic Route 75 is up 20%. “That route is up so high because it’s accelerated express service. I see our ability to grow and to have a bus rapid-transit system one day that will almost double our capacity, that would improve travel times — but our ability to do that is contingent on creating a regional transportation authority.”
For transit purposes, Madison and its surrounding communities, together, have to be counted as a far-reaching single entity, Kamp argues.
“My message to our leaders, including at the state level, who don’t necessarily have an ear tuned into us at the moment, is, ‘You need to remember Madison is more like the Twin Cities or Chicago than it is like Appleton or Green Bay.’”