A GOP elephant heading toward an open door.
The May deadline for elected state officials to file statements saying they will not run again on Nov. 3 clarified who is moving out of the Capitol and who wants to move up the political ladder.
Moving out: One in five Republican legislators — eight in the Assembly and six in the Senate — filed statements saying they will not seek re-election. The six senators are half of the 12 GOP incumbents whose terms end this year and who would have had to run in new districts.
Moving up: Two Democratic legislators want promotions — Rep. Francesca Hong, of Madison, is running for governor and Rep. Robyn Vining, of Wauwatosa, is running for the state Senate seat of retiring Republican Sen. Rob Hutton. Another Democratic official, Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski, is running for lieutenant governor and not seeking re-election. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers officially said he will not seek a third term; Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez is running for governor.
Because Republicans have controlled the Legislature since 2011, and had 54-45 control of the Assembly and a 18-15 margin in the Senate during the last session, the number of retiring Republicans is the biggest change in statements of noncandidacy.
"The disproportionate number of departures on the Republican side of the aisle indicate pessimism about their own chances and about the party's fate generally in November," Barry Burden, a UW-Madison political science professor and veteran observer of Wisconsin politics, says in an email.
Burden sees a contradiction in the GOP exodus. "On one hand, it seems sensible that more Republicans would be leaving office voluntarily this year because their seats and the party's majority are in greater jeopardy than they have been in a decade and half," he says. "Voluntary departures are often an indicator of how a party is feeling about its chances in the general election.
"On the other hand, the possibility of winning a GOP trifecta in state government this fall would seem to be a reason for Republican members to hang around for at least one more cycle," he adds. "The governor's race and control of the state legislature are all up for grabs and highly competitive, so there is a real possibility of Republicans returning to full control if [Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom] Tiffany runs well at the top of the ticket."
The eight retiring Assembly Republicans are: Speaker Robin Vos, of Rochester; Speaker Pro Tem Kevin Petersen, of Waupaca; Robert Brooks, of Saukville; Rick Gundrum, of Slinger; Scott Allen, of Waukesha; Jessie Rodriguez, of Oak Creek; Jerry O'Connor, of Fond du Lac, and Dean Kaufert, of Neenah.
Four of the eight — Rodriguez, Allen, Brooks and Gundrum — represent Milwaukee suburbs, which could potentially weaken that region's clout in the Capitol during the 2027-2028 session. Rodriguez, for example, was a member of the Legislature's budget-building Joint Finance Committee.
The six Republicans leaving the Capitol are: Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, of Oostburg; Van Wanggaard, of Racine; Steve Nass, of Whitewater; Andre Jacque, of New Franken; Jesse James, of Thorp, and Hutton, of Brookfield.
Republican legislators cited various reasons for retiring, including their years of service — Nass has served in the Legislature since 1991 — and a desire to spend more time with their families. Vos, the longest-serving Assembly speaker, says a cancer diagnosis last year forced him to rethink his priorities. Others, like Hutton, said they wanted to explore different careers.
Charles Franklin, founder of the Marquette University Law School, says Senate Republicans faced the most uncertainty this year. Democrats gained four Senate seats in the 2024 election and have handpicked candidates running in enough districts to control that chamber in the next session.
"I expect the prospect of a Democratic majority, especially in the Senate, makes remaining in office in the minority less attractive," Franklin says in an email. "Six of the 12 GOP senators up this year are retiring — 50%."
Other retiring Republican legislators have different reasons for leaving, Franklin says. "For the most part it is not because they are in tough districts. Most are heavily Republican districts that are unlikely to flip, especially for an incumbent."
Sen. Pat Testin and Rep. Tony Kurtz, who discussed legislative races at the Republican Party convention, represent the next generation of GOP legislators. Testin, 37, of Stevens Point, won re-election two years ago with 57% of the vote; Kurtz, 59, of Wonewoc, got 63% of the vote.
Steven Walters started covering the Capitol in 1988. Contact him at stevenscotwalters@gmail.com.
