Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governor has changed a lot since January — and not much at all

Wisconsin Watch checked in with the five remaining candidates as they made their pitch at events across the state

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Editor's note: This story was published before Thursday, July 30, when Mandela Barnes dropped out of the race.

The Democratic primary for governor of Wisconsin has changed both dramatically and barely at all since the start of this year.

The size of the field, which remained stagnant at seven major candidates for months, shifted rapidly in the span of 10 days in July that included both the exit of Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez from the race after she revealed problems with her campaign finance reports and the reentry of Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who secured a historically rare endorsement from Gov. Tony Evers. 

As of Thursday, the race includes former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan, Crowley, Madison state Rep. Francesca Hong and Madison state Sen. Kelda Roys. 

Here is what hasn’t changed: Hong, a self-described democratic socialist, leads her opponents in a Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday, which was conducted with Rodriguez out and Crowley back in the field. Internal polling released by Barnes and Crowley’s campaigns also showed Hong in front. 

A fractured field means support continues to be spread out across the remaining five candidates and could result in a winner on primary Election Day with far less than 50% of the vote. Meanwhile, Republicans have coalesced around likely nominee U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany for months.

“Hong could certainly win the nomination with 35 to 40% of the vote,” said Anthony Chergosky, an associate professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse. “All available evidence indicates that Hong is below 50% of the vote, but she doesn't even need 50% of the vote if the field remains so fragmented and divided.” 

At the same time, the percentage of undecided voters continues to be higher than those who have selected any specific candidate. The Marquette Poll found nearly half of registered voters surveyed in mid-July were undecided. 

Wisconsin Watch traveled to forums, farm tours and meet-and-greets around the state as the five remaining candidates have continued to lay out their vision to voters and explain why they are best suited to lead Wisconsin. 

The stakes of the race are high. Democrats see 2026 as an opportunity to win control of the Capitol for the first time since 2010, which could result in dramatic new progressive legislation. After Republicans won the governor’s office and majorities in the Senate and the Assembly in 2010, they used that power to dismantle public sector unions, increase pension and health insurance contributions for public employees, cut taxes, freeze UW tuition, restrict abortion, permit concealed carry of firearms, end the state’s land conservation program and enact gerrymandered legislative maps that protected their majority from a Democratic wave in 2018. 

It leaves a lot for voters to digest as in-person early voting begins Tuesday and two weeks remain before the partisan primary on Aug. 11. Two key moments this week could reshape the race — a debate hosted by WISN on Tuesday evening and a new Marquette University Law School Poll of the current field expected to be released on Wednesday. 

Barnes takes aim at political establishment

The same day the Wisconsin Elections Commission determined tech businessman Elon Musk likely broke state election laws during the 2025 state Supreme Court race, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes slammed the influence of money in politics at a town hall with End Citizens United, a political group that quickly endorsed him upon his entry in the governor’s race in December.  

Wisconsinites rejected Musk’s financial influence last year and must continue to fight against a “rigged system” that doesn’t support policies for working people, like raising the minimum wage, Barnes told the small group gathered at the Goodman Community Center in Madison. 

“These are the same industries that are making money hand over fist, the same people in industries that continue to make it hard for folks to get paid,” Barnes said. “You talk about people working harder and harder but life also getting harder and harder. It’s more difficult to get into the middle class. It’s more difficult to be able to purchase that first home. It’s more difficult to be able to even think about the American Dream now.” 

Barnes grew up in Milwaukee with a mother as a public school teacher and a father who belonged to the United Auto Workers union. He is a former organizer who served two terms in the state Assembly, ran for and lost a state Senate seat and was elected lieutenant governor during the 2018 blue wave. He has led a voter turnout organization and a clean energy advocacy group, but hasn’t run any large organizations, which opponents have highlighted as a weakness for someone seeking to be the state’s chief executive.

In 2022 he won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate after opponents dropped out ahead of the primary, but narrowly lost to Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson. While the race has driven his name recognition in the gubernatorial primary, that 26,000-vote defeat still eats at him, he told guests at the Wisconsin Democratic Convention in June. 

The loss has opened him to criticism from other Democrats who have questioned whether he can win in a year when the party is striving for a trifecta in the governor’s office and the Legislature. 

While he trails in the polls behind Hong, Barnes insists he remains the most battle-tested candidate to take on obstacles for Democrats after the primary. The recent Marquette Poll shows only Barnes leading in head-to-head matchups against Tiffany among the remaining candidates in the race, although last week’s poll did not include Crowley.

Barnes has campaigned on what he calls “The Wisconsin Way,” a policy agenda that includes raising taxes on the rich, expanding BadgerCare, passing universal child care and freezing utility rates, though some experts question whether Barnes would have the legal authority to freeze rates as governor. 

At a Democratic forum in Belmont, Barnes criticized the political moves that led Crowley to reenter the governor’s race with Evers’ endorsement. It’s another example of a system that leaves people frustrated with politics, he said in a clip shared on social media. 

“The only people who win when we continue to play these insider politics games are corporations and special interests,” he said. “We deserve so much more.” 

Brennan brings state government experience

Joel Brennan arrived at an East Troy farm ready to listen. 

Brennan nodded as Jim Stute, a research agronomist, explained how precipitation levels have changed on the property he has lived on for nearly three decades. Brennan leaned against a headless scarecrow in a white lab suit among the neat rows of research crops as Stute described his tactics to scare away sandhill cranes.

It’s a window into how Brennan, a longtime city dweller who grew up in Brookfield and lives in Milwaukee, has approached his campaign for governor. 

“It's got to be about learning and listening. If we're going to get stuff done, it has to be around … data-driven decisions and personal stories,” Brennan explained. “For me it is about how do I get out here and do this, how do I learn from people who have been doing it, what are the successes, what are the ways the state's been involved, and what's the opportunity for us?” 

Brennan is unabashedly running as a moderate Democrat, often aligning himself with the Evers administration that he helped lead as the secretary of the Department of Administration. He highlights his willingness to continue working across the aisle to get things done for Wisconsinites.

Like many of Brennan’s primary opponents, his campaign has focused on ways to make life more affordable in Wisconsin, such as expanding Medicaid and providing a public option for BadgerCare. But his ideas have often differed from some of the large-scale policies of his primary opponents. While the other Democrats have backed universal child care, Brennan has instead favored tax credits for child care businesses, caps on out-of-pocket costs for families and expanding eligibility for the existing Wisconsin Shares program. 

He entered the race in mid-December and has leaned on his career experience holding executive-level roles in businesses and nonprofits, including serving as CEO of Discovery World and president of the Greater Milwaukee Committee. In 2018, Evers tapped Brennan to lead the DOA, the top state executive agency tasked with overseeing financial management of state agencies and helping the governor draft the biennial budget. Brennan left that position in 2022. 

Brennan is the only one of the remaining candidates who has not held elected office before, which has limited his name recognition. Though he was the first Democratic candidate to launch a campaign ad in June, he only mustered 5% support in last week’s Marquette Poll. 

Still, he has tried to find ways to push through the crowd, including questioning the electability of front-runners or his primary opponents’ leadership decisions. He was the first to attack Rodriguez with pointed questions after she fired her campaign manager over inaccuracies in her financial reports and released an ad last week criticizing Hong, Barnes and Crowley as unelectable in a general election. The ad, however, received pushback from Black Democrats, who called the spot racist for specifically highlighting candidates of color. It left out mention of Roys, who is white like Brennan. 

Brennan insists his executive experience gives him an edge over the candidates with legislative experience who “don’t have defined duties.” 

“That’s what I’m going to keep leaning into,” Brennan said. “That, plus listening and learning, I think, gets you to a point where people can see me doing the job, know that I could win and could be effective as governor. Those are the ingredients that get me to where I need to get to.” 

Crowley returns with Evers’ endorsement

The first question for Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley from a smattering of people gathered at the Concordia Ballroom in La Crosse was about why he dropped out of the governor’s race in early July. 

“It’s a long story,” Crowley said. He explained he initially chose to leave the race based on the numbers and campaign ad buy announcements that seemed to show Rodriguez with the best path forward, but more information came out about Rodriguez’s financial position that showed it was not the case. 

Crowley restarted his campaign on July 18. While Crowley acknowledged he may be the “double Dutch candidate” in the race, he told the group in La Crosse he feels a momentum propelling his campaign that was not there before. 

The most significant boost came from Evers, who endorsed Crowley on July 18 over the remaining candidates who served in his administration. Evers in a statement described Crowley as “the right candidate for the people of Wisconsin.” 

“He’s not just a candidate who can win in November,” Evers said. “But he’s the kind of person who cares about doing the job right, he has the experience to make tough decisions, and he’s proven he can work together with others to get good things done.” 

Crowley, at 40, is both the youngest and first Black person to serve as Milwaukee County executive, the job that oversees the most populous county in Wisconsin. It’s a role previously held by former Republican Gov. Scott Walker. “I’m not like him, though,” Crowley said with a chuckle to a guest in La Crosse.

Crowley grew up in Milwaukee and navigated challenging early years as his parents struggled with mental health and addiction and his family faced evictions. He credits public schools with his path to success and eventually became a community organizer. 

His entry into politics first began with work on former U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold’s campaign. Crowley was first elected to office in 2016 when he ran for state Assembly. He served two terms and left the Legislature in 2020 to run for Milwaukee County executive. 

Crowley tells audiences at campaign events how, as county executive, he has not shied away from working with anyone, including lawmakers across the aisle, to improve the lives of people in Milwaukee County. In La Crosse, he told the group about his efforts in passing the 2023 shared revenue law that has helped Milwaukee County pay off debts incurred from the pension scandal in the early 2000s, although Crowley acknowledged the law did not solve all municipal funding problems across the state.

Crowley has focused his campaign on an affordability plan referred to as the “Badger Basics,” which includes proposals such as building more housing, creating a public option for BadgerCare and easing child care costs for families with a child under age 5 by capping their costs at 7% of their household income. 

The key question for Crowley’s campaign is whether any momentum following his reentry into the race can actually push Crowley to the front of the field with just two weeks left to go. 

The new Marquette Poll this week will provide a window into if his support has grown among registered voters, but in recent days, Crowley has also had to field questions about profane social media posts on an account he said he once shared with others. Crowley’s campaign told news outlets that although he had access to the account, he did not write any of the posts. 

Crowley said Evers’ endorsement shows the governor, whose job performance remains favorable among Wisconsin voters, believes in Crowley’s judgment.

“I think indirectly, people are wondering, ‘OK, who the hell is this dude, and why did Governor Evers pick him?’” Crowley said. “So, people are showing up. They're paying attention to our social media posts, and they're coming out to volunteer and donating their hard-earned money to support this campaign because they trust his judgment.” 

Hong rides momentum into final weeks of primary campaign 

Francesca Hong diced tomatoes for pico de gallo as she told guests at Dan Wegmueller’s farm in Monroe about the top question she hears on the campaign trail. 

Why is she a democratic socialist? 

“It’s less about the labels and more about the solutions,” Hong explained as her knife hit the cutting board, a familiar task for the chef and former restaurant owner. “When we are focusing on local, on the means of taking care of people and lowering costs, that has to mean being less reliant on industry. Right now, our community is being dominated by billionaires and mega corporations not paying their fair share, and then deciding a lot of the pricing and the way that we live our lives.”

Hong, a 37-year-old state representative from deep-blue Madison, has emerged as a top contender in Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. Her surprising rise comes as democratic socialists are winning primaries across the country and rejecting establishment policies. Hong has led in three Marquette polls since October and finished second behind Rodriguez in the WisPolitics straw poll at the Wisconsin Democratic Convention in June. 

If Hong wins the nomination, the key question for Democrats in swing-state Wisconsin is whether her policies appeal to voters across the state. The Marquette Poll last week showed more registered voters have an unfavorable view of the democratic socialist label than a favorable one.

Republicans appear to be rooting for her nomination. A recent ad from the Republican Governors Association ominously casts her as being too liberal, opposed to President Donald Trump and supportive of abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement — all statements that could entice Democrats to vote for her in the primary.

Hong has had to answer questions about controversial democratic socialist views, such as her past social media posts in support of defunding and abolishing the police. She told radio station WTMJ in July that she does not believe police funding should go away. At the same time, Hong has faced backlash from Republicans for her statement that described the fatal shooting of Corey Ruiz in Madison as “an execution.” 

Hong also has had to fend off questions about appearing on a fundraising live stream with Hasan Piker, the controversial political commentator and streamer, who has been criticized for antisemitic comments. Hong told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that she disagrees with some of Piker’s comments, but said candidates should not give up opportunities to address large audiences. 

Hong, a single mother who was elected to the Assembly in 2020, has leaned on her service industry background and economic policy proposals, including universal child care and a moratorium on data center construction, to connect with voters.

In the final weeks, Hong said she plans to continue to show up in communities not expecting to see a candidate and engage in one-to-one conversations to drive curiosity about her vision and policies. People underestimate the extent that policy matters more than labels and existing political boundaries, Hong said. 

“I'm lucky that I get to say and show up as a chef, a mom, a renter, a service industry worker,” Hong said. “That from worker to worker we’ve got to talk about how we’ve got to fix this.”  

Roys has teachers union endorsement, campaign experience

Kelda Roys, sitting center stage in Evansville High School’s auditorium, eagerly chose a bucket brimming with education questions as the first category of the night during a forum on rural issues in early July. Just three candidates — Roys, Hong and Republican Andy Manske — participated. 

It was an obvious move for the Madison state senator, who won the endorsement of Wisconsin’s largest teachers union and bills herself as the “education candidate” in this year’s Democratic primary. 

Roys used the question — explain your position on separation of church and state regarding public schools in Wisconsin — to share her broader vision for public education in the state. 

“What my kids are getting in our public schools is not the same as what my sisters and I got, and it’s not OK with me,” Roys told the crowd. “A huge part of that reason is because we are diverting public resources into private unaccountable vouchers, many of them religious in nature. So, as governor, I will fully fund our public schools.” 

Gubernatorial forums are familiar spaces for Roys. She ran for governor in 2018, when 10 candidates competed in the Democratic primary for the chance to unseat then-Republican Gov. Scott Walker. Roys finished third far behind Evers, who defeated Walker that November. 

Before that, she served two terms in the Assembly from 2009 through 2013, which overlapped with the early years of the Republican trifecta control of state government and the passage of Act 10. Roys led protests against the law that dismantled collective bargaining rights for most public employees while serving as the Assembly’s Democratic caucus chair. 

In 2012, she ran for Congress and lost the Democratic primary to now-U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan. Roys returned to the Legislature when she was elected to the state Senate in 2020 after winning a seven-candidate Democratic primary on Madison’s west side and ran unopposed in 2024. She is also an attorney and a real estate agent. 

Roys has focused her campaign on funding public schools, but also lowering costs and raising wages. Her policies include plans to open the state’s insurance plan to all Wisconsinites to decrease the cost of health insurance. She also proposes universal access to Wisconsin Shares, the state’s child care subsidy program for low-income families, with costs capped at 7% of parents’ income per child. The state would fund its portion of the costs through legalizing marijuana. “You’re going to be able to get baked for babies,” she said to laughs in Evansville. 

She is quick at campaign events to describe the Trump administration as a “dangerous authoritarian regime,” while promising to safeguard Wisconsinites and their rights from attacks by the federal government.

Roys, though, has not made inroads in polling over the course of the primary, and last week’s Marquette Poll shows her at the bottom of the pack among registered voters with support at just 2%. 

Still, Wisconsin needs an experienced leader in this moment when Democratic control is on the line, and her experience in the Legislature makes her best suited for the job, she said. 

“For over 20 years I have been turning progressive ideas into law in the toughest of political environments, and that is the kind of experience and deliverables that we should expect from our next governor,” Roys said. “Not just somebody with good ideas, because we've got six (now five) great Democrats running … but you've got to be able to turn them into law.”

This story was produced and originally published by Wisconsin Watch, a nonprofit, nonpartisan newsroom.