Geez, Wisconsin, can you just stick to the program?
The national narrative for the last six weeks or so is that Democrats are going to go down hard on Tuesday. After a brief late summer surge, pretty much everything has gone against them. Inflation remains stubborn. Mortgage interest rates are up while the volatile stock market is mostly down. There’s endless talk of a looming recession.
Meanwhile, the one issue that Democrats thought might reverse their fortunes seems not to be panning out. While most Americans are pro-choice, abortion doesn’t seem to be the motivating issue for voters that might turn a red wave blue, as had been hoped for when Roe v. Wade was overturned last summer. A CNN poll that was released on Wednesday found that inflation/the economy was the top issue for voters at 51 percent. Abortion came in second, but at only 15 percent.
In the latest Marquette Law School poll abortion came in sixth overall for Wisconsin voters and, critically, seventh among independent voters. So, the hope that reproductive rights would push persuadable voters into the Democrats’ column seems to be fading fast.
The headlines on the landing page of the Cook Political Report on Thursday told the result of all this. Ten More (Blue) House Districts Move in GOP’s Direction. Governor Ratings Change in New York and Michigan Toward GOP. Arizona Shifts Back to Tossup. Fundamentals Favor Republicans. The Midterm Returns to Form. They did note that the governor’s race in Connecticut had moved to safe Democrat. And that was about it for happy news.
This wasn’t all bad in a psychological sense. I was now prepared for slaughter. Any positive news at all on Wednesday morning would have been greeted as if my party had just run the table. I would have accepted Doug La Follette holding on to the secretary of state’s office as not a bad day’s work.
And now this. That new Marquette poll has Mandela Barnes back within the margin of error against Republican Sen. Ron Johnson. Barnes had been moving steadily in the wrong direction. The Marquette poll had him at plus seven points in August, minus one in September and minus six in October. Now, he’s down by only two points, well within the four point margin of error.
The race between Gov. Tony Evers and his Republican challenger, Tim Michels, is a dead heat and virtually unchanged since last month. So, this wouldn’t appear to be part of some broader reverse trend toward Democrats.
It wouldn’t, except that here’s another thing that runs counter to national trends. While the enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans has been growing nationally, the opposite is true in Wisconsin. In the most recent Marquette poll, 89 percent of Wisconsin Democrats said they were absolutely certain to vote while 83 percent of Republicans said the same. Back in October it was 84 percent to 83 percent in favor of the GOP.
So, what’s going on? Why does Barnes seem to be defying all the trends, including the trend in his own race to this point? This is where my years of experience in politics come into play. This is what you come here for. Ready? Here it comes.
I don’t have a freaking clue what’s going on.
Maybe Barnes’ television ads have gotten better. He took a lot of whining from Democrats about his famous peanut butter sandwich ad, which I actually thought was pretty good. He’s gotten tougher on Johnson in the last few weeks. But on the other hand, it’s not like independent groups supporting Barnes weren’t beating the bejesus out of RoJo all along. And the Marquette poll didn’t find any real increase in Johnson’s negatives.
Maybe the prospect of Johnson — a conspiracy monger, election and climate denier, and all around embarrassment to Wisconsin — actually being reelected to a third six-year term jolted Democrats into action. Hence, their sudden six-point lead in enthusiasm for voting. And maybe the same dynamic didn’t apply to Evers simply because Democrats think he’ll still pull it off and Michels isn’t as well known and thus, not as hated.
Or maybe…it’s all just a mirage. In September, Vox looked at 47 Senate races since 2014 in which the final margin was 10 points or less. In 39 of them the Republican candidate outperformed what the polls predicted. Their conclusion is that there’s something built into polling practices that tends to overstate support for Democrats, at least in Senate contests.
So there. I wanted to end on a low note so that you’ll be prepared for crushing defeat on Tuesday night. Better to be pleasantly surprised than surprised and devastated. Remember 2016? It could be like that except this time we’ll see it coming. Cocktail ingredients can be readied in advance.
I’m still feeling good about Doug La Follette, by the way.
And on a related matter…The New York Times reported on Friday that it could get even worse. It has flown under the radar, but it now looks entirely possible that Republicans could achieve veto-proof majorities in both houses of the Legislature. They only have to pick up one seat in the Senate — which is all but assured — and they need five seats in the Assembly. The Times reports that two of those could be picked up in what was once Democratic territory around Superior, Ashland and Bayfield. If this happens, then it doesn’t matter much who wins the governor’s race.
Dave Cieslewicz is a Madison- and Upper Peninsula-based writer who served as mayor of Madison from 2003 to 2011. Both his reporting and his opinion writing have been recognized by the Milwaukee Press Club. You can read more of his work at Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos. He’s the author of Light Blue: How center-left moderates can build an enduring Democratic majority.
