U.S. Rep. Glenn Grothman (left) is facing a challenge from Democrat Dan Kohl.
As you’re watching results filter in on Election Day, you might want to keep an eye on Wisconsin’s 6th Congressional District.
That’s a solidly Republican district running north and west of Milwaukee. It was held for 25 years by moderate Republican Tom Petri, but since 2015 it has been represented by the extremely conservative Glenn Grothman. In 2016 Grothman won reelection by almost 20 points. The district overall runs about 17 percent more Republican than the nation as a whole.
But this time Grothman is being challenged by Dan Kohl, the nephew of former U.S. Sen. Herb Kohl. Dan Kohl has at least three things going for him. For one thing, his is a popular name even in this conservative district. His uncle easily won there. Second, he’s got money, having raised twice as much cash as Grothman.
But the third factor makes the district a possible bellwether for the rest of the state and maybe the country. This is an affluent, suburban district and these are the kinds of voters (especially suburban women with college degrees) who are turned off by President Donald Trump.
If Kohl comes close or wins here that would be a strong indication that the blue wave is actually coming ashore on Election Day. While disdain for Trump may not translate as easily to other races, it would be hard to imagine a scenario in which Grothman loses but Gov. Scott Walker and Attorney General Brad Schimel win. Sen. Tammy Baldwin seems like a lock for reelection no matter what happens.
While Kohl has run a strong race, experts still predict a Grothman victory. The website FiveThirtyEight gives Grothman five in seven odds of winning and they rate the district as “leans Republican.” The Cook Political Report has the district in the “likely Republican” column.
But that means that a close race here would be an even more powerful indication of a blue wave. If Democrats could pull off a win against Grothman or even get close in a district that observers see as pretty much out of their reach, then what does that indicate for the dozens of congressional seats and other races, like Wisconsin governor, that polling shows are much closer?
While Kohl has his unique advantages, his party in general has three things breaking in their favor. There is an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats with 81 percent of Democratic voters in Wisconsin saying they were excited about voting compared to 74 percent of Republicans, according to the latest Marquette Law School poll released Nov. 1. Second, independents are breaking blue. And third, suburban women seem to have had enough of Trump. But it’s that third factor that is most uncertain and Kohl needs all three things to work in his favor in order to pull off an upset. Keep in mind that Trump actually won white women in 2016 even after the Access Hollywood tape controversy and numerous other comments that seemed to demean women.
And just in case any of this leaves you too optimistic, of course, the flip side is true. If we hear about exit polls pointing to an easy victory for Grothman then it could end up being yet another disappointing night for Democrats. We’ll be overcome by a different kind of blue.
For what’s it’s worth (and it’s not worth much) I’m going to go with the blue wave. I’ll pick Baldwin easily over the disagreeable Leah Vukmir, Democrat Tony Evers more narrowly over Walker, Josh Kaul over Schimel, Democrat Randy Bryce to take Paul Ryan’s 1st Congressional District and nationally the Democrats to take back the House. Even in a blue wave year it seems all but impossible for the Democrats to take back the U.S. Senate or the Wisconsin Assembly. And while I’ll predict that Kriss Marion will knock off incumbent Republican Howard Marklein in southwest Wisconsin’s 17th Senate District, it seems like a stretch for them to win a majority in that house.
