Like most people I have just assumed that the Wisconsin presidential primary would be an afterthought. Maybe not.
Wisconsin votes on April 7 after well over half of Democratic delegates will have been spoken for. Up until last week it seemed like a safe bet that by the time the show arrived here a presumptive nominee would be firmly established, probably with a “Stop (Whoever)!” candidate nipping futilely at their heels. It would be all over but the shouting, though there would be plenty of that.
But now there’s reason to wonder. We have gotten through Iowa and New Hampshire with six viable candidates still in the field. Let’s assess their chances of making it to Wisconsin.
Joe Biden is dead man walking. He admitted to taking a “gut punch” in Iowa and he made his New Hampshire concession speech as part of his opening statement at the debate in Manchester several days before the actual voting. He looks tired, befuddled and beaten. But if he can win in Nevada and South Carolina — especially if he can do so with high turnout — his campaign will be revived going into Super Tuesday only three days after South Carolina.
Bernie Sanders seems to have secured the support of the progressive wing of the party. In contrast to Biden, who is close in age, Sanders comes off as an energetic grouch. If he cleans up on Super Tuesday, March 3, when there will be 16 contests, including in California and Texas, he could deliver the knockout punch. But I wouldn’t count on it. For one thing, if Biden can pull off victories in Nevada and South Carolina, that throws all kinds of doubt into Super Tuesday. And with voters still digesting the South Carolina results, it could result in shifting loyalties going into that big day.
Elizabeth Warren has all but given up the contest for the progressive mantle. She has switched her argument, now portraying herself as the candidate who can unite the party. After spending the first part of the campaign attacking the moderates, that just isn’t a plausible argument. I don’t see her moving on after South Carolina. The lion’s share of her support should go to Sanders.
Michael Bloomberg has pretty much bet it all (and he has a lot to bet with) on Super Tuesday. The big day plays to his strength: being able to buy lots and lots of television ads. I’d be shocked if the day after the March 3 primaries he didn’t, you know, march forth (sorry). Bloomberg is already geared up in Wisconsin.
If it’s true that Republicans fall in line while Democrats fall in love, the most desired candidate is Pete Buttigieg. Mayor Peter has the cool, charismatic intellectual vibe of John Kennedy passed on down through Barack Obama. And, let’s face it, he is actually better prepared for the presidency, after eight years as a public executive, than Obama was with only four years as a junior U.S. senator. He also is to money what Velcro is to lint. He should have enough bucks to be competitive on Super Tuesday. I’d be surprised if he were not still standing after all the checks are cashed.
Amy Klobuchar gets the award for hanging in there. New Hampshire was her breakthrough, but mostly because she finished ahead of Warren and Biden. If those two fall by the wayside, I’m not sure that she can best Bloomberg or Buttigieg for leader of the moderates. But if Warren leaves, then she becomes the only woman in the race and in the Democratic Party that counts for something. Besides, Wisconsin is a neighboring state to her own Minnesota, so if she still has even a whisper of a chance, she may want to make a stand here.
Even after Super Tuesday, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois and Florida, as well as 14 other states and territories, have primaries or caucuses before Wisconsin. While that might lead to some more attrition along the way, it seems unlikely that, if Super Tuesday isn’t definitive, any of those contests will be.
Nor will Wisconsin’s. I don’t see any scenario where Wisconsin decides the nomination. But it does seem increasingly likely that we will matter, and this will be good news for Democrats trying to pick up a seat on the state Supreme Court, a race that will also be decided on April 7. An exciting presidential race will help turn out Democrats eager to defeat incumbent conservative Justice Dan Kelly.
The Wisconsin primary is never likely to be the big deal it once was, but given the state’s importance in November, and the competitive beginning to the primary season, maybe we won’t be ignored after all. It could be fun.
