David Michael Miller
There’s the smell of revolution in the air. That can happen when you have a president who lost the popular vote by nearly three million ballots and has an approval rating stuck below 40 percent for the last five months.
The result of Republican President Donald Trump’s extraordinary unpopularity has been a near explosion of Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives. Longtime political prognosticator Larry Sabato and his Center for Politics noted that “Democrats have more than 200 filed House challengers,” and that’s more than the combined total at this point in the last four cycles.
Democrats need a gain of 24 seats to retake the House and Sabato rates 28 GOP-held seats as either “a toss-up” or “leans Republican,” along with another 28 judged as “likely Republican.” That’s 56 very competitive seats, compared to just 22 Democratic seats ranked in those three categories.
Since Trump’s election, polls asking whether voters favor a generic Democrat or Republican for the House have consistently given the edge to Democrats; the latest results show a 10.5 percent Democratic edge, as FiveThirtyEight reports.
Those numbers wouldn’t mean as much if Democrats weren’t fielding a large group of candidates, Sabato notes, but they clearly are.
Still, not one of those 56 competitive seats held by Republicans are in Wisconsin. That’s because this is the most gerrymandered state in America, and the five (of eight) congressional seats in Wisconsin now held by Republicans have huge GOP majorities. In 2016 Trump carried those five seats by margins of 20 percent (5th and 7th Districts), 18 percent (8th District), 17 percent (6th District) and 10 percent (1st District).
Sixth District Republican Rep. Glenn Grothman has moaned to the media about how poorly his fundraising is going, while he faces a wealthy Democratic challenger Dan Kohl, nephew of former Sen. Herb Kohl. “This is the toughest race of my political career,” Grothman lamented. “When you talk nationwide about the Republicans losing the House next time, this is one of the seats that’s going to be in play.
Actually, I haven’t seen any list of vulnerable congressional districts that includes Grothman’s. Given the 17-point margin in his district, it would require a historic Democratic wave to bring him down.
The only district in the state where Democrats have much hope of vanquishing an incumbent is Rep. Paul Ryan’s 1st District, with its still daunting 10 percent Republican margin. Democrats have fielded two strong challengers, Randy Bryce, an Army veteran and iron worker whose father was Mexican American, and Cathy Myers, a teacher and Janesville School Board member.
Bryce created a powerful video that quickly went viral, after getting coverage from both Esquire magazine and Daily Kos, whose headline declared “Wow!...a must see video.” The video ended with Bryce suggesting he swap jobs for a while with the incumbent: “Paul Ryan, you can come work the iron and I’ll go to D.C.”
Bryce has become a darling of Democratic donors nationally, raising $1.5 million in short order, “and could raise $15 million,” a Democratic consultant predicts. This is likely to become a national race, with both parties pouring in millions.
Ryan is vulnerable on the issues: he championed the Obamacare replacement bill which was very unpopular and supports a tax plan that gives almost all the cuts to the wealthy.
But Ryan has won by an average of more than 25 points since his first election in 1998, and there are at least 56 Republican-held seats that are more competitive. As CNN has reported. “Ryan’s district’s demographics don’t do any Democrats any favors. The area is 82 percent white, 9 percent Hispanic, 5 percent black and 2 percent Asian... Only a quarter have a college degree. Democrats tend to perform better in districts with minority and college-educated populations.
Still, it’s the best hope for state Democrats. In the other Republican-held seats, Rep. James Sensenbrenner (5th District) will face Democrat Tom Palzewicz, a small business owner and Navy veteran, and Rep. Mike Gallagher (8th District) will be opposed by Beau Liegeois, a Brown County assistant D.A. and Army veteran.
“All of the Republican seats will be contested,” the Democratic consultant predicts. “None will get a free ride.” He expects a woman and veteran to announce her candidacy against Rep. Sean Duffy (7th District). That would make five military veterans running against the GOP incumbents.
Odds are none will win, but you never know. The congressional special elections in 2017 so far have shown “a swing of 9, 17, 20 and 24 net percentage points toward the Democrats,” CNN noted. That’s an average 17-point swing, enough to make Ryan and even Grothman vulnerable.
The fact that all races are contested will also mean a higher Democratic turnout, and that will help incumbent U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who is predicted to face a close election. For that matter, it will also help Democrats in the statewide races against Gov. Scott Walker and Attorney General Brad Schimel. Trump, it seems, has assured there will be a “yuuge” field of Democrats running in 2018.
Bruce Murphy is the editor of UrbanMilwaukee.com.
