David Michael Miller
Gov. Tony Evers is tossing a 50-yard pass into the end zone in the hopes that somebody on his team will catch it. Good luck with that.
Evers has announced that he’s appointing a nonpartisan commission to draw new legislative district boundaries after this year’s census. As part of their work, members will hold hearings around the state, which will amount to a campaign in favor of fair maps.
This gambit has a long shot chance of disrupting what seems like an inevitable march toward another decade of gerrymandered maps and Republican control of the Legislature.
Let’s review. Every 10 years legislative bodies all across the land are required to redraw their maps so that each district has roughly the same number of people.
Ten years ago, when Republicans controlled everything in Wisconsin, they used taxpayer money to draw the new maps in secret. Even Republican legislators who looked at their own new districts had to sign nondisclosure agreements. It was disgusting.
The maps were challenged in court, but after a long and winding road the U.S. Supreme Court dealt fairness a horrible blow. Ruling on cases in other states, they essentially ended any hope of challenging future maps in federal court based on partisan gerrymandering.
To underscore just how awful all of this is, a few months after the court’s ruling in 2018, Wisconsin Democrats proceeded to sweep all of the statewide races and yet the Republicans held control of the Assembly by a margin or 63-36 and the Senate by 19-14.
So now let’s play this out. The census happens this year. Evers’ commission will take the data and draw maps that will probably be reasonable and fair. Meanwhile, the Republicans will take the same census data and use it to draw maps that give them once again an overwhelming partisan advantage.
Which maps will win in the end? There’s a heavy probability that the rigged Republican maps will prevail.
I wish I could be more hopeful but pretty much all roads lead to the state Supreme Court, which, depending on the outcome of this April’s election, will carry either a 4-3 or 5-2 conservative majority. Make no mistake. Those conservative justices are not fair-minded, public-spirited jurists. They are simply two-bit political hacks. They will rule in favor of the rigged maps to give their fellow Republicans an advantage. Case closed.
Sure, there is a bill in the Legislature to provide for a fair process and yes, a handful of Republican legislators have signed on to it or have said they will support it. But that bill will never get a vote. Assembly Speaker Robin Vos and Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald will not allow it, no matter how many editorials are written or how many “Fair Maps” lawn signs pop up around the state. Their power depends on cheating. They cannot win free and fair elections and so there is no way that they will ever allow them.
So, is it hopeless then? Well, yeah, pretty much.
Evers could threaten to veto the 2021-22 budget unless the Legislature agrees to adopt one of a few map options created by an official nonpartisan commission, like the informal body he will be appointing soon. Since the budget is the only bill that must pass each session, even though it’s pretty much unrelated to redistricting, threatening to veto it provides Evers some leverage.
The budget is supposed to pass by July 2021 and the maps don’t really need to be in place until the spring of 2022 when nomination papers can be circulated for that fall’s elections.
So, the timing works, but Evers doesn’t have nearly the same leverage as he would have had he vetoed the 2019-20 budget and held out for a fair process then. That’s because the Legislature will have the census data before the next budget cycle. That means the Republicans can just ignore any threat Evers’ makes, adopt their own maps, figure that the governor will veto them and then proceed to the courts where they know that they will eventually win.
This is a tragedy in three parts. First, the Democrats squandered their chance to win a majority on the state Supreme Court. Then the U.S. Supreme Court closed down any appeal to them on the issue of extreme partisan gerrymanders. And finally Evers demurred on playing hardball in the last budget.
Still, there’s no percentage in giving up. Evers’ commission is worth a shot. Threatening a budget veto next year is worth a try. And there’s no reason not to put up a lawn sign, write to your legislator, and send a letter to the editor. Just don’t expect this tragic play to have a happy ending.
Dave Cieslewicz is the former mayor of Madison. He blogs as Citizen Dave at isthmus.com.
