David Michael Miller
What surprised me was the timing.
For weeks rumors had abounded that Mayor Paul Soglin would reverse his earlier announcement and run again. But I thought he’d wait another month, until after the dust settled on the midterm elections. Otherwise, this was the least surprising surprise announcement imaginable.
We’ve seen this movie several times before. I saw it firsthand in 2002 when Soglin entered the race after closing down his campaign committee in a bit of misdirection. Some of the most serious candidates who had already announced dropped out when Soglin dropped in. The most prominent was Wayne Bigelow, who had lost the mayor’s race four years earlier by only a handful of votes. I stayed in and we pulled off a narrow victory.
I witnessed it again eight years later. Soglin and I had been sharing breakfast once a month, comparing notes on issues that faced the city. In early December of 2010 we had our regular breakfast. Soglin said nothing about a run and, in fact, in a couple years of these get-togethers, had never indicated any problems with the direction that I was taking the city. Within 48 hours of that December 2010 meeting he was making phone calls to organize a campaign against me. Four months later I narrowly lost.
Still, I think it’s a good thing that he’s back in the race. More choices for voters is always a good thing. I wouldn’t write that if I thought any of the half-dozen serious announced candidates would drop out. But it’s an indication of how much things have changed since 2002 that it appears that they will all stay in. Soglin just isn’t the intimidating political force that he was back then.
Part of that is due to his weak showing in the gubernatorial primary, where he finished seventh out of eight candidates with active campaigns. Worse for him, he didn’t win a single ward in Madison that had more than five voters in it.
Soglin’s opponents should be encouraged by that, but they also should be cautious. It’s my theory that Madisonians vote for Soglin for mayor for a very specific reason that did not translate to the governor’s race. The man’s angry aggressiveness can present itself as reassuring. In a city where any group of five people will produce 10 opinions and at least two nonprofits, Soglin comes off almost like a strongman who can keep some semblance of order.
But a mercurial nature and picking fights doesn’t often produce results. Eight years ago Soglin ran on two issues. He was going to reduce the city’s borrowing and end poverty. Eight years later city debt is higher than it was back then and, last I checked, poverty, homelessness and racial inequality continue. Shortly after taking office Soglin declared that food policy and a public market were priorities for him. Eight years later there’s still no market.
Beyond policy failures, there is the issue of relationships, which goes directly to the mayor’s personality. There’s always natural tension between the executive and the legislative branch, but Soglin is almost universally disliked on the council. He touts his response to this summer’s floods, but the key relationship there is with Dane County, which has much more power over surface water issues than the city. Soglin’s relationship with the more easygoing County Executive Joe Parisi is, to put it mildly, somewhat chilly. No mayor of Madison is likely to get along with a Legislature controlled by extremist conservatives, but Soglin certainly has no influence at all in the Capitol.
My read is that, given a credible, younger, more positive opponent, Soglin can be defeated, and rather easily. But if his opponents try to beat him at his own game, they will fail. The mayor has the market cornered on angry intimidation.
Look, all the candidates will likely have virtually the same positions on the issues. What will set them apart is their temperament and that, in my view, is key because what matters most going forward is relationship building. Madison will do fine no matter who is at the helm, but it will really thrive only if the mayor and council trust one another, if the city can work hand in glove with the county and if the relationship with state government can be at least businesslike and productive.
It’s fine that Soglin is back in the race. More choices are better. But this time it seems like we have better choices.
Dave Cieslewicz is the former mayor of Madison. He blogs as Citizen Dave at isthmus.com
