Tommy Washbush
Hands drawing a Wisconsin district map using a red pencil and a blue pencil.
I intended to write my annual column about the biggest state and local stories of the past year. Candidates include the takeover of the Supreme Court by liberals, the grand compromise between UW President Jay Rothman and Speaker Robin Vos, the decision by a Dane County judge to essentially restore abortion rights, the easy reelection of Madison Mayor Satya Rhodes-Conway, the Brewers’ stadium deal, the trade of Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets, and the defection of long-time Brewers manager Craig Counsell to the hated Chicago Cubs.
But as I wrote I kept coming back to the one enduring, central fact of Wisconsin politics: the Republicans aren’t going anywhere. That reality animates everything in state politics and we pretend otherwise at our peril.
The court has now done what was expected: they declared that the current maps violated the law and ordered up new ones. Both sides are now required to offer new maps by Jan. 12 unless the Republican Legislature and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers can agree on a new set of maps before then — not likely.
But here’s the thing. It would be hard, maybe even impossible, for the court to hand majorities to the Democrats. That’s because the biggest story of this decade is the report of the People’s Maps Commission, which came out in October 2021. That report, commissioned by Evers, demonstrated that, even under the most fair maps legally possible, Republicans were still projected to enjoy at least a 55-44 majority in the Assembly and a 17-16 edge in the state Senate. And those were the best case scenarios for the Democrats.
It’s true that in a Democratic wave year the party might eke out majorities in both houses, but it’s almost impossible to imagine a long-term Democratic legislative majority of the kind Republicans have had for the last decade. And even in a year when Democratic lightning struck, the majorities would have been won by lots of moderates winning in districts that shaded Republican. So, the idea that we’re going to have a golden era of liberal government anytime soon is fanciful.
As a matter of fact, even if our liberal Supreme Court tried to fix the maps to favor Democrats those maps would almost surely be struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court. The Wisconsin court did, in fact, include a curious twist in its order. It said maps had to follow all of the rules established to this point but then added a new one: the maps could not be drawn to favor either party. The problem with that is that you would probably have to violate some of the other rules to make that happen.
In order to draw maps where Democrats had an equal chance at majorities you would have to violate existing legal standards regarding compactness of districts and keeping communities of interest together. You would probably even have to violate federal rules about creating enough districts where racial minorities had a chance of winning. In fact, several Black and Hispanic Democrats in the Legislature voted against the People’s Maps plan for that very reason.
The fundamental problem is that Democrats cluster in cities. To get enough blue districts to equal the red ones you’d have to drive narrow wedges into those cities that then fan out into the surrounding countryside. In short, you’d have to gerrymander the heck out of the maps to get that result. Ironically, to reverse extreme partisan gerrymandering you would have to commit extreme nonpartisan gerrymandering.
The implications of this for Wisconsin politics are profound. Democrats need to hold onto the governor’s office and the attorney general’s office, keep a liberal majority on the Supreme Court, and pick up a majority in the Senate now and then. That’s probably the best they can hope for. Taking back both houses of the Legislature so that they can pass new laws over Republican objections is very unlikely.
That means that we’ll be playing defense all the time unless we change our perspective. And by change I mean become more moderate and open to compromise. Far-left ideas that require majorities in both houses of the Legislature are simply going nowhere. But centrist — and sometimes even center-left — policies have a chance.
One good thing that will come of new maps is that it may make the Republican caucuses somewhat more reasonable. While the GOP will still likely keep their majorities, there should be more competitive districts. They won’t be able to act with the impunity and absolute disregard for public opinion that they do now. And, if the Democrats can maintain their leverage points by winning those statewide offices, deals can be struck and progress can be made.
This may already be happening. Last summer, Evers and Legislative Republicans worked out three important compromises. They provided a lot more funding for public schools, an Evers priority, along with more funding for school vouchers, a Republican cause. And they agreed on the first increase in shared revenues, which help local governments pay for police, fire and other basic services, in decades, though Madison got the shaft in that formula. Finally, they gave the city and county of Milwaukee increased sales tax authority in exchange for some rather draconian requirements imposed on the city. Evers and Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson swallowed hard and accepted the annoying micromanaging of Milwaukee in exchange for the revenues.
And the recent grand compromise between UW President Jay Rothman and Speaker Robin Vos, approved by Evers’ majority on the Board of Regents, is another example of what can be accomplished. The UW got everything it wanted in exchange for some minor concessions on diversity, equity and inclusion programs.
The next big issue, as far as I can see, is prisons. The Green Bay prison is a humanitarian nightmare. Much of it is more than a century old and the whole thing is beyond repair. It needs to be shut down and the sooner the better. But things are at a standstill because Evers is insisting on reducing the number of prison beds while the Republicans want to replace Green Bay with a modern facility.
It’s an issue ripe for compromise, much like the Rothman-Vos deal on the UW. In my view, the thing to do is to accept the reality that Wisconsin prison populations will remain in the 20,000-24,000 range as they have for more than a decade. Liberal activists may be right that we lock up more people than we need to, but I would trade a higher incarceration rate for better living conditions for prisoners.
There just isn’t popular support for driving the numbers much below what we have now. So, Democrats should give up their unrealistic notions of lowering those populations while demanding humane facilities and better programming for prisoners. They should focus on a deal, not the ideal.
Lots of stuff happened this year. Lots will happen next year. But nothing is more significant than the hard reality presented to us so plainly by the People’s Maps Commission back in 2021.
Dave Cieslewicz is a Madison- and Upper Peninsula-based writer who served as mayor of Madison from 2003 to 2011. You can read more of his work at Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos.
