David Michael Miller
In the doldrums of winter, what can rekindle your interest in life?
The latest Marquette Law School poll!
Seriously, people, there’s lots of good stuff in there. The poll shows strong support for more gun control, a greater concern for environmental protection than economic growth, and trouble for incumbent Gov. Scott Walker on a variety of fronts.
One of those fronts is the Foxconn deal, something Walker thought would be a home run for his reelection prospects when it was announced last summer. But it turns out that voters are more than a little skeptical of the $3 billion state taxpayer giveaway (plus another billion dollars in local incentives) and the free pass on environmental regulations.
Statewide, voters think we’re paying more than the deal is worth by a margin of 49 percent to 38 percent, with the rest not sure. The deal even has negative numbers in the city of Milwaukee, where residents might have been expected to be excited about the job prospects nearby. In fact, the only part of the state where Foxconn is popular is the Milwaukee suburbs, and even there the margin is a less than overwhelming, 52 percent to 40 percent with another eight percent undecided.
What has to be particularly troubling for the Walker camp is the fact that the issue seems to magnify his weaknesses. Walker’s numbers have remained strong in the WOW (Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington) counties, while his support has weakened in the north. Now, Foxconn is hurting him in precisely the parts of the state where he needs to recover.
Ironically, Walker’s central political strategy may backfire on him. The governor was elected in 2010 primarily by playing the rest of the state against Milwaukee and Madison. That’s why he killed the passenger train linking Milwaukee and Madison to Chicago and turned back $810 million in federal money to build it. But now the Foxconn deal is playing into the very resentments that Walker fanned and exploited.
In the northern part of the state, more than 57 percent of voters think the Foxconn deal will benefit Milwaukee. And, thanks to eight years of building on those resentments, these voters aren’t thinking “good for Milwaukee.” They’re thinking “There goes state government again, shoveling our tax dollars at Milwaukee so that they benefit and we pay.”
The poll shows that Walker remains a divisive figure, with 48 percent having a favorable opinion of him and 48 percent having an unfavorable opinion. And those who disapprove are not likely to change their minds about him. Mix in a fired-up Democratic base (the poll showed 64 percent of Democrats enthusiastic about voting in the fall versus 54 percent of Republicans) and all signs point to a close race. It won’t take much to flip the election against Walker.
There may not be a lot of votes in the north, but there’s enough to decide a close election. It would be sweet irony if Walker’s own divide-and-conquer strategy came back to beat him in November.
