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Elections are like Rorschach tests. People tend to interpret the results based on their existing points of view.
So, as a left-center moderate, it’s not surprising that I view this November’s outcomes as a mandate for centrist policies. I don’t expect that I’ll convince anyone on the right who sees the election, with its 73 million Trump voters and it’s pick-up of House seats for the GOP, as a mandate for Trumpism, if not for Trump. And I also don’t expect to convince anyone on the left who sees the same results as evidence that the Democrats need to embrace the Green New Deal, Medicare for All and defunding of police departments.
But, that said, let me see if I can make a convincing case for moderation for anyone out there who is still persuadable.
First, there’s Joe Biden himself. The president-elect was the leading moderate in the primaries. He defeated the progressive alternatives in Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. So, even Democratic voters did not embrace far-left policies.
Second, Biden won largely because of one man: South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn. When Clyburn endorsed Biden just before his state’s primary it sealed a convincing win there for him, signaled strong support among African Americans and saved Biden’s campaign from oblivion. And how does Jim Clyburn view this election? In an interview shortly after Nov. 3, Clyburn said, “So, I don’t get hung up on labels, so I don’t know what I am. I'm an American, a very proud American. And I’m a Democrat, a very proud Democrat. So I just want us to be Democrats in a big tent, and these labels, I reject.” That doesn’t sound to me like a call to the barricades.
Third, Democrats were unpleasantly surprised to lose seats in the House and it wasn’t because they didn’t go far enough left. It was because they lost in swing districts where they were tagged with the “socialist” label, linked to those who want to defund the police and tarred with images of looting during this summer’s unrest.
Fourth, don’t forget 2010. After the Democrats passed Obamacare they got slaughtered in the next election and largely because of a revolt by the very blue collar voters that the ACA was designed to help. And yet progressive Democrats haven’t learned that lesson. They are befuddled by blue collar voters because they fundamentally misunderstand them. The left thinks that every answer involves a big new government program when what working class voters want is better private sector jobs.
Fifth, demographics might not be destiny after all. For a long time the party believed that a diversifying electorate would automatically turn to them. But the biggest part of that movement was supposed to be the Latino vote. Democrats have viewed them as a monolith and taken them for granted. But this election highlighted the diversity of that community. To win this demographic as thoroughly as they had counted on, the party would need to strongly disavow socialism, pay attention to taxes and regulation, and be more welcoming to pro-life Democrats — hardly a progressive agenda.
Sixth, there’s just the numbers in Congress. The Democrats hold on to the House by a thread and the remaining moderates are not going to vote for far-left proposals. The same goes for the Senate where the Republicans will hold on to a slim majority unless the Dems can seal two run-off victories in Georgia. And even if they can accomplish that it only means that the most powerful man in the country becomes conservative Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin from West Virginia. Like their moderate to conservative colleagues in the House, Manchin and others will not want to even have to vote on the far-left agenda and they will vote ‘no’ if they have to. It just isn’t going to happen.
And finally, the common assumption that the Democratic base is progressive is probably false. New York Times columnist Thomas B. Edsall makes a convincing case that the party has a strong practical, centrist wing. In fact, it’s the moderate wing of the party that is most diverse and includes the highest share of Black Democrats. It only seems that the left makes up the base because they are loud and proud. Moderates are, well, moderate. They don’t make a lot of noise. They just vote.
It seems to me that Biden will be successful in large part just by being himself: calm, reasonable, reassuring and compassionate. He’ll restore norms of adult behavior. In other words, he’ll be a total and refreshing contrast to the juvenile narcissist we’ve had in the White House for the last four years.
And then, of course, there are things that the new president can do through executive orders: rejoin the Paris climate accords, reverse the ban on immigration from some Muslim countries, reinstate DACA, and reimpose fuel efficiency standards on the auto industry, just for starters.
As for getting anything through Congress, good luck with that. There is every reason to believe that Republicans will dig in and refuse to cooperate on anything, just as they did with Obama. But if Biden can pick off just one or two GOP senators, like Susan Collins or Mitt Romney, he may be able to win here and there. An infrastructure bill might have a good chance, for example. But I can’t see any scenario under which Biden could pass anything even approaching the Green New Deal or other progressive dreams.
Of course, again with the help of a moderate Republican senator or two, he could get more fair-minded, if not liberal, federal judges appointed and maybe even a left-center Supreme Court justice if he gets the chance.
I share the goals of the left for progress on health care, climate change, social justice and other issues. But I don’t think that a sober evaluation of the political landscape suggests that there’s any way to make that progress but through steady incremental change. Convinced?
