Tommy Washbush
Marquette Law School poll results August 2022
It’s here! It’s here!
The latest Marquette University Law School poll came out late last week. It’s the first new MU poll since June and it was taken right after the Aug. 9 primaries. I’ve unwrapped the box and dug deep inside and I’m ready to play with the new toys. Let’s get started!
Is it just a bump? In this latest poll both Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels and Democratic Senate candidate Mandela Barnes each picked up five points on their opponents. In the June poll Michels trailed incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers 48 percent to 41 percent. In this post-primary poll Evers leads by 45 percent to 43 percent. Same goes for Barnes. In June he led Republican Sen. Ron Johnson 46 percent to 44 percent, now it’s up to 51 percent to 44 percent. The identical five-point pick up for both Michels and Barnes suggests that this may be just a temporary bump due to their primary victories.
But there’s evidence to suggest that the boost may be more enduring for Barnes. Former Milwaukee Journal Sentinel political reporter Craig Gilbert, who now works for Marquette Law School’s Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education, points out that Johnson’s comeback potential may be reduced from what it was when he came from behind to defeat former Sen. Russ Feingold for a second time in 2016. In that year Johnson trailed Feingold by nine points in early August, only to come back and win by three points in November. But six years ago Johnson’s disapproval ratings were much lower and there were a lot more voters who didn’t have an opinion about him. He won by converting those neutral voters into supporters. This time he’s got a deeper hole to dig out of and fewer persuadable voters to reach.
On the other hand, Michels’ bump could truly be ephemeral. He’s up against the most popular politician in Wisconsin. Evers’ approval rating has now hovered consistently just under 50 percent. In the old days that used to spell trouble for an incumbent, but in Wisconsin’s now deeply and evenly split political environment, a 47 percent approval rating looks tough to beat. And since he’s a well-known entity, that 47 percent is probably pretty firm. All he needs to pick up is another 3 percent or so and he’s got another four years. Except that he might not need even that much because of…
The Beglinger factor. Who, you may ask, is Joan Beglinger? That’s a question worth considering because the independent candidate for governor was at a surprising 7 percent in the Marquette poll, the first time she’s shown up in it. It turns out that Beglinger is a former St. Mary’s Hospital administrator. Her website lists a host of positions that mirror those of Michels — she’s staunchly against abortion, she questions the integrity of our elections, she’s a Second Amendment absolutist, and on and on. Which begs the Beglinger question: Why is she running as an independent when she’s essentially a Republican? The answer she provides on her website — that both parties are corrupt — is less than convincing. Maybe she just figured she had no chance against Michels and former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch in the primary. But why would she want to take votes from the Republican in the general when she supports all their positions? I don’t know, but I do know that this will help Evers. Beglinger seems to be taking most of her support from conservative-leaning non-aligned voters, who are among the…
Interesting independents. Independent voters headed in two different directions after June. In the governor’s race they broke toward the Republican Michels while in the Senate contest they broke toward Democrat Barnes. Evers held a strong 49 percent to 35 percent lead among independents in June, but his margin was down to only 41 percent to 37 percent against Michels after the primary. On the other hand, Barnes’ margin with independents jumped to 52 percent to 38 percent, up from a tie with Johnson back in June at 44 percent each. So, independents could help Barnes more than Evers, which seems counterintuitive given that Barnes is a much more outspoken progressive than Evers. This bears watching, but independents are less enthusiastic about voting while…
The enthusiasm gap among partisans has closed. Back in June the Republicans had a substantial advantage in energy. They were champing at the bit to vote in November while Democrats seemed dispirited. But now 83 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats say they are “absolutely certain” to vote in the fall, while 66 percent of independents say the same. The increase in Democratic enthusiasm may be coming from a jolt of hope resulting from the Kansas vote in support of abortion rights or from a recent string of Democratic legislative successes in Congress. It’s hard to say for sure, but it probably suggests that…
The issue landscape has shifted in Democrats’ favor. The top four issues for voters are inflation, gun violence, crime and abortion. Two of those, inflation and crime, should work in the Republicans’ favor while the other two, gun violence and abortion, should help the Democrats. But it’s important to note that inflation at 67 percent, while still the top concern, is down eight points from where it was in June when 75 percent of people said it was their number one worry. If inflation continues to ease (gas prices have plummeted since June) then it’s likely that issues favoring Democrats, like abortion, will rise. That’s especially good for the Dems because it’s an issue that will help them win with independents, who favor abortion rights 62 percent to 31 percent. And beyond issues, all the candidates need to deal with…
National party leaders who are unpopular. Trump is viewed negatively by 57 percent of voters while 55 percent disapprove of the job Biden is doing. But I think the Republicans’ Trump problem is worse for two reasons. First, neither Evers nor Barnes have felt the need to get close to Biden while Michels tied himself to Trump at the hip during the primary. He’s trying to distance himself now, but don’t expect Evers’ camp to let him get away with that. And second, it’s unlikely that Trump will get any more popular in the next three months. He’ll continue to harp on his unfounded grievances about 2020. On the other hand, Biden’s numbers may improve after his big legislative victories, but only if inflation starts to ease across the board.
Taken as a whole, this latest MU poll is chock full of good news for Democrats. But we’re still 11 weeks out from the election. I’ll make no predictions, but I do feel better about things than I did when the summer began.
Dave Cieslewicz is a Madison- and Upper Peninsula-based writer who served as mayor of Madison from 2003 to 2011. Both his reporting and his opinion writing have been recognized by the Milwaukee Press Club. You can read more of his work at Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos. He’s the author of Light Blue: How center-left moderates can build an enduring Democratic majority.
