Tammy Baldwin next to a yellow checkmark signifying victory.
It looks to me like Sen. Tammy Baldwin was just re-elected to a third term representing Wisconsin. A formal election will still be held in November 2024.
Well, okay, so I overstate the case. But just slightly. When U.S. Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-8th Congressional District) of Green Bay announced earlier this month that he would not challenge Baldwin, it was pretty much all over. Gallagher was the Republicans’ best shot. He’s a Green Bay native, a graduate of Princeton and Georgetown, a former Marine and, while supporting Donald Trump in about 90% of his votes, he’s shown the occasional tilt toward moderation. He voted for the Respect for Marriage Act, a law largely credited to Baldwin that protected same sex and interracial marriage against potential attacks stemming from the Supreme Court’s abandonment of Roe v. Wade.
Gallagher considered a race against Baldwin, but declined and probably for good reasons. She beat Wisconsin political icon Tommy Thompson in 2012 and then dispatched token Republican candidate state Sen. Leah Vukmir in a rout six years later. In a word, she’s formidable.
Gallagher may have had a few additional considerations. At this point his party looks to be led at the top of the ticket yet again by former President Donald Trump. As in prospective convicted federal felon Donald Trump. I wish I could say that that guarantees a second term for Joe Biden and a wave for his Democrats. It doesn’t guarantee anything, but it sure wouldn’t make a guy like Gallagher feel very good about the overall dynamics for 2024.
And then there’s abortion. Gallagher has a solid anti-abortion record. And last weekend at the state party convention, Republicans doubled down, endorsing the 1849 abortion ban that makes no exceptions for rape or incest. About two-thirds of voters are pro-choice. You can bet that Baldwin will do all that she can to make this election about reproductive rights and Gallagher simply has no way out of the votes he’s already recorded or the extremist position taken by his party.
And finally, Gallagher is only 39. He’s got a secure seat in the House, he’s considered to be a rising star there and he’s got plenty of time to move up if he wants.
If Gallagher would have had an uphill fight against Baldwin, the remaining potential candidates are looking up at a mountain. Three names have been most frequently mentioned.
Former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke will have a hard time keeping the descriptive term “unhinged” out of biographical pieces on him. To quote just one paragraph from a profile in the Daily Beast in March: “During the 2016 election Clarke called for Trump supporters to take up ‘pitchforks and torches’ against Democrats and the media. In 2020, Clarke invited the far-right Proud Boys gang to Wisconsin, backed the ex-president’s false claims of election fraud, and urged Jan. 6 rioters not to cooperate with law enforcement.” Ok. Well, at least we know where he stands.
Madison developer Eric Hovde looks like a senator, but his past attempts to win his party’s nomination have fallen flat. Hovde lost in the 2012 Senate primary to Thompson and he explored a run at the 2018 gubernatorial nomination but ultimately passed. He can self-fund his campaign and, having never held office, he has no record to live down. On the other hand, he cannot win his party’s nomination without going all in on abortion and he just doesn’t seem to fire up the base. He’d be a more serious opponent than Clarke, but still little more threatening than Vukmir was back in 2018.
Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-7th Congressional District) of Minocqua is probably the strongest potential candidate of these three. He does inspire the Republican base and he’s a pretty fair campaigner. He has said he’ll make up his mind later this summer and he appears to be giving the race a close look. At 65, he’s running out of time to move up if that’s what he wants. But on the other hand, he has to be aware of the same factors that probably kept Gallagher in the House. And he’s further to the right of Gallagher. Tiffany voted against the Respect for Marriage Act and he voted against certifying 2020 election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania. He’s easily cast as an extremist because, well, he is.
So, with Gallagher gone, what’s left to face Baldwin is more or less a land of misfit toys. I find it odd that former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch is not said to be in the mix. She narrowly lost to Tim Michels in a bitterly fought primary to take on Gov. Tony Evers last year. Maybe that bitterness has soured Kleefisch on politics or the party on Kleefisch, but I think she’d be a stronger candidate than any of the three mentioned above.
The last thing Baldwin and the Democrats can afford to do is to take the election for granted. Thomspon did that in 2012 and look where it got him. But there’s no evidence that Baldwin will do that. She is nothing if not diligent and she always runs a smart, well-funded campaign. She works hard. She’s disciplined on the stump. She does not make mistakes.
I’ve often written that Democrats should go to school on Baldwin. She’s from Dane County. She has a well-documented liberal record. She’s the first openly gay person to serve in the Senate. And yet despite all those things that should drag her down she wins in Wisconsin. She proves that it’s possible. So, Democrats should study what she does, where she goes, what she says, how she frames issues. And then go do that.
Tammy Baldwin has not yet won a third term in the Senate. But with her most serious challenger chased off, she’s more than half the way there.
Dave Cieslewicz is a Madison- and Upper Peninsula-based writer who served as mayor of Madison from 2003 to 2011. Both his reporting and his opinion writing have been recognized by the Milwaukee Press Club. You can read more of his work at Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos.
