If you haven’t voted yet don’t read this blog. If you have to walk across hot coals laced with shards of glass while listening to Barry Manilow’s greatest hits in order to cast your ballot, do it anyway. (Let me apologize here for giving Republicans new ideas about how to depress voter turnout.)
OK. Are they gone? Good. For those of you who have already voted and are still experiencing PTSD over 2016 let me offer some reassuring thoughts.
I’ve noticed a disturbing psychological phenomenon among people whose politics are anything to the left of Genghis Khan. (And Genghis Khan, by the way, is a personal hero to Terry Gou, the emperor of Foxconn.) They cannot bring themselves to utter a word of hope. We all feel like Charlie Brown happily racing toward the football only to have Lucy (played by Donald Trump) snatch it away at the last minute. We won’t be fooled again. We cling to our paranoia as a way to guard against ever again feeling that kind of soul crushing disappointment.
And, of course, in politics a little paranoia isn’t a bad thing. As long as it doesn’t result in just throwing in the towel, which it certainly hasn’t in this case. Ever since Trump’s election Democrats have been on fire. The evidence is that they’re voting in huge numbers.
So, let’s be realistic. While nothing’s ever certain in politics or much of the rest of life, there’s every reason to think Joe Biden will win. And no, folks, I am not superstitious. I didn’t just jinx anything. The numbers don’t lie.
First, let’s consider the big picture. Trump lost the popular vote last time by 3 million votes and he won the Electoral College by a total of 77,000 votes in three states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. That’s 77,000 votes out of almost 130 million cast nationwide. All things being equal, Biden simply has to flip a tiny fraction of votes in the right places and he wins.
But, of course, all things aren’t equal. They’re better. Consider the following.
Older voters. Trump won voters over 65 in 2016, but this year they’re abandoning him in droves. Biden has an amazing 27 point lead in that heavily voting age group. Trump’s botching of the pandemic and his attacks on Social Security combined with Biden’s generally reassuring nature have sealed his fate with older Americans. Democrats haven’t won the 65 plus age group since 2000 and yet Barack Obama won twice without them. Imagine what a Democrat can do with them.
Blue collar voters. Trump still holds a solid 14 point lead among white high school educated voters, but that’s down a whopping 25 points from the 39 point advantage he had four years ago.
Money. We can make too much out of money in politics. Once you’ve spent enough to get your message out each additional dollar has declining value. Hillary Clinton significantly outspent Trump four years ago. Still, you’d rather have more money than the other guy. Biden and affiliated groups have outraised Trump and his friends so thoroughly that the Biden camp has a $118 million lead over Trump for the home stretch.
Wisconsin. Usually races tighten closer to Election Day, but Biden’s lead is expanding. The most recent poll shows him with a nine point lead, up from five a few weeks ago and well outside of the margin of error. Wisconsin has been identified as the key state because if Trump loses here it’s difficult to see how he wins in other states that he needs.
The map. Trump’s back is against the wall now. If he loses Florida or Ohio, both states in play that he won last time, he’s gone. He pretty much has to run the table of those states plus Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan and hold on to a handful of other states that are trending against him to have a chance of winning. Biden has many paths to victory while Trump has a narrow one.
Even after Biden wins life won’t be a picnic. Trump will be a jerk — my bet is he won’t bother to show up at the inauguration. And even in a landslide he’ll get around 60 million votes. Those people won’t just go away or get behind the new president. They’ll be the sorest of sore losers. Conspiracy theories will abound. Talk about paranoia.
But by January Donald Trump will be out of the White House replaced by a decent and good man. Things can only get better from there.
Now, if you haven’t voted yet and have disregarded my instructions not to read this blog, let me tell you that this is all just a hoax, a Republican/Kremlin disinformation campaign to sow complacency in the Democratic base. It’s more important than ever that you vote, Barry Manilow be damned.
