David Michael Miller
With more than a dozen Democrats announced or considering a run for the party’s nomination for governor against Scott Walker, let’s unapologetically do some horse race speculation. This has nothing at all to do with who is the more informed candidate, who has the best thought-out positions or even who has the best chance of beating Walker.
No, just for the pure fun of it, this is one pundit’s take on the eight candidates who seem to have the best chance of getting the nomination next August. And a cautionary note: It comes from a guy who confidently predicted that Hillary Clinton would edge out Marco Rubio for the presidency last year. If there’s a grain of salt nearby, you may want to take it now.
Tony Evers (announced). The state Superintendent has come charging out of the gate. He’s always — annoyingly but impressively — in my email inbox. He was brilliant to spend what was probably a tiny sum on some radio and internet ads right after he announced in which he attacked Scott Walker over the Foxconn deal. He’s been on the attack against Walker from day one, something the rank and file craves. Moreover, the guy has actually run and won statewide campaigns, winning his most recent one in April. The only concern here is that he could peak early or become the clear frontrunner too soon, allowing the GOP to rev up their character assassination machine.
Mike McCabe (announced). This will drive a lot of Dem insiders crazy. McCabe is not well-liked among them and for good reason. When he announced he was looking at a race he said he needed to decide if he’d run as a Democrat, a Republican or an independent. That came off as either manipulative or naïve. McCabe strikes a lot of people as less than sincere in his “Aw shucks, I’m just doing the will of the people” approach to politics. But this stuff sells in a Democratic primary. In a crowded field McCabe has straightforward liberal positions: he would repeal Act 10, establish a $15 minimum wage, etc. He doesn’t hedge. He’d be smart to do what Bernie Sanders did and concentrate his early campaign on college campuses where he might build bigger crowds that would get him noticed.
Kathleen Vinehout. She’s a woman, which probably gets her a five-point advantage in a Democratic primary. Among Democrats who think it’s really important to nominate someone who hails far away from any urban center, the state senator from rural Alma checks that box too. And while she only finished with four percent of the vote when she first ran for the gubernatorial nomination in 2012, she said things along the campaign trail that endeared her to the left. But absolute purity on reproductive rights issues is still a litmus test for Dems and there is some inconsistency on that issue in her voting record.
Dana Wachs (announced). It’s not clear that the widely respected state rep from Eau Claire can recover from a slow and rocky start. He seemed dazed by a Republican attack right out of the box claiming that as a trial attorney he represented a UW-Eau Claire student who had fallen off a classroom stool. He said that he didn’t recall that case. Maybe he didn’t, but you’d expect a trial lawyer to think more quickly on his feet. (“This could have happened anywhere. Every Wisconsinite has a right to safe stools, whether in classrooms or taverns!” he might have shot back resulting in a huge bump in the polls.) Then a memo from his campaign manager was leaked in which he suggested that Wachs would contrast well against “Milwaukee elitists” and “Madison liberals” in the primary. Wachs may not have written the memo himself, but if that’s going to be the attitude of his campaign, they may want to count primary votes that come from urban elitists and liberals and see if they can write them off and still win. Here’s a hint: no.
Andy Gronik (announced). The Milwaukee businessman was the first serious candidate to announce. His ability to personally fund some of his campaign, his business credentials and his lack of a record to attack made him seem attractive. But like Wachs he was slow and unsteady out of the starting gate. Now, there are revelations that he was forced out of his business in an ugly dispute over how hard he was working. If you’re going to base a campaign in large part on your business acumen then your business dealings are fair game for scrutiny. It’s not clear that Gronik can recover, but he’s still got some attractive qualities.
Paul Soglin. Hizzoner’s theory is that Wisconsin went for a grumpy old guy in the presidential primary. But the mayor tests the theory — Soglin makes Bernie Sanders look like Julie Andrews. Still, it’s a year for unconventional politicians and Soglin most certainly is that. “Soglin for Governor. Get off our lawn!”
Susan Happ. The Jefferson County District Attorney ran a lackluster campaign for attorney general in 2014. Her entire campaign was basically about one ad in which she rode a Harley (woman rides motorcycle!), but like Vinehout she’s a woman from a rural county, which some Dems might find appealing.
Mahlon Mitchell. On paper and in person he’s a very appealing candidate. A firefighter, union leader, an excellent public speaker and charming guy all around. He’d also excite Dems as he would be the first African American to get a party nomination for governor in Wisconsin. He also ran for lieutenant governor in the 2012 recall election. It’s not clear how serious he is about considering the run, but if he does get in and the others stumble in front of him, he might find himself in a good position.
There are at least eight more people considering a race, but at this point none of them seem to have any chance for the nomination.
As a whole this field is like Capital Brewery’s Supper Club beer, which sells itself as, “not bad.” Beating Walker may have more to do with how the Democrats perform nationally in what will be a midterm referendum on President Trump, and with how U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin does, than it does with who the actual nominee is.
Do not despair, Democrats. Under the right circumstances any of these candidates could win.
