Dan Kelly: Eric Tadsen / Brad Schimel: US Department of Justice
The numbers suggest that Brad Schimel is no Dan Kelly.
A Waukesha County Circuit Court judge, former attorney general and ex-district attorney, Schimel announced last week that he will run against Supreme Court Justice Ann Walsh Bradley in the April 2025 election.
That’s right; Schimel announced for an election 16 months away, after next November elections for president, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and members of the Legislature.
It’s so far away that others may join Schimel in deciding to challenge Walsh Bradley, who has said she will run for a fourth 10-year term. But by announcing so early, Schimel is trying to discourage others from running. The bitter February primary between two Republican-backed candidates, former Justice Kelly and Waukesha County Circuit Judge Jennifer Dorow, hurt Kelly’s chances in the April election.
Just like the April election in which Justice Janet Protasiewicz beat Kelly, the April 2025 vote will decide whether liberals keep their four-justice majority or conservatives reclaim the majority they held for 12 years.
“There is no check on this new liberal Supreme Court majority,” Schimel said in his official announcement. “The only check on them is to take back the majority by winning in 2025.”
What numbers have many Republicans saying Schimel will be a stronger candidate than Kelly?
When he was elected attorney general in 2014, and again in his 2018 election loss to Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul, Schimel got more than 1.2 million votes. That’s 46% more votes in a statewide election than the 818,391 Kelly got in April.
In his native Waukesha County, Schimel’s vote totals were amazingly consistent: 146,321 in 2018 and 145,432 in 2014. Kelly got 94,710 votes in Waukesha County last April.
And, if you add Waukesha to the other five eastern Wisconsin counties that political pros concentrate on (Ozaukee, Washington, Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago), Schimel got 372,008 votes in 2018 and 357,986 votes in 2014. Kelly got 235,170 votes in those counties in April.
Supreme Court candidates backed by Democrats did make headway in these counties in recent years: Justice Rebecca Dallet got 31,598 votes in Waukesha County in 2018; Protasiewicz got 68,244 votes in her April win.
And sure, Schimel ran in 2018 and ‘14 elections dominated by top-of-ticket elections for governor and, in 2018, for U.S. senator.
But voter turnout in the Protasiewicz-versus-Kelly election soared, approaching levels seen in elections for governor. The 2025 Supreme Court election is expected to again see record spending. The $51 million spent in the Kelly-versus-Protasiewicz race set a national record that could be broken two years later.
Schimel, who is 58, also has a stronger Republican pedigree — Waukesha County district attorney and then attorney general and winner of five of six elections — than Kelly, who had never been a judge or ran a campaign before Republican Gov. Scott Walker appointed him to the Supreme Court in 2016.
Kelly lost his first bid for a full 10-year term to Justice Jill Karofsky in 2020.
Historical references to Wisconsin Supreme Court races as non-partisan are now meaningless.
Protasiewicz was the Democrats’ candidate, supported by almost $10 million in spending by the state Democratic Party, and Kelly was the Republican choice. If he wins a primary, Schimel will be the Republican and Walsh Bradley the Democrat.
The April 2025 election could focus on what role Walsh Bradley, who is 73, plays in Supreme Court decisions this term on drawing new legislative district lines and abortion. Walsh Bradley’s opponents will dig through every opinion she has written since 1995.
But Walsh Bradley’s opponent must decide how to respond to the abortion issue. Protasiewicz stressed her belief that women have a right to that procedure in her landslide win over Kelly.
Walsh Bradley’s campaign can expect help from the state Democratic Party, despite what she said at a March 2015 forum with her opponent, Rock County Circuit Judge James Daley.
Then, according to ballotpedia.com, Walsh Bradley said: “I have a vision for our court system where political parties are not having undue input on nonpartisan races. I need and want the votes of Republicans, Democrats, independents and everyone in between.
But I strongly believe political parties should stay out of judicial races.”
Contrast that with what State Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler said, in an interview earlier this year, about how his party plans to help Walsh Bradley in 2025.
“It’s different when you have an incumbent,” Wikler said. “The stakes will be enormous. As a party, we’ll be just about ready to do anything to avoid returning to a ‘rogue court.’”
