Sharon Vanorny, Sean Krajacic
Kriss Marion, left, failed to flip a Republican-held state Senate seat and Randy Bryce lost the race to succeed Republican U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan.
Despite some clear victories, Wisconsin Democrats came up short in the midterm elections. Many had hoped a national blue wave would help flip the state Senate’s Republican majority, but the red seawall mostly held strong.
Republicans had an 18-15 edge in the Senate with 13 seats up for grabs heading into Tuesday, and Democrats had been pinning their hopes on three female candidates — Kriss Marion, Lee Snodgrass and Julie Henszey. All three lost their Senate bids.
It’s a bitter pill to swallow for Marion, who spoke with Isthmus on Wednesday morning after losing to District 17 incumbent Howard Marklein by 54 percent to 46 percent.
“Look what happened,” she says. “We had great candidates run, by all accounts, and tons of money spent, and we still couldn’t unseat someone like Howard Marklein, who isn’t popular in the district — but he is Republican.”
No incumbent of either party — save for the short-lived term of Democrat Caleb Frostman in the state Senate — lost in this election. The GOP now controls the Senate 19-14. In the Assembly, the GOP entered Tuesday’s election with a 64-35 majority. Although some Assembly races were too close to call on Wednesday morning, the Associated Press reported that Republicans would maintain control.
The big prize for Democrats is the governorship, as state schools chief Tony Evers edged out incumbent Scott Walker. And in an upset, former federal prosecutor Josh Kaul overcame a deficit in the polls to defeat incumbent Republican Attorney General Brad Schimel. Democrats also nabbed two other statewide races: Sarah Godlewski won the open state treasurer seat and Doug La Follette won his 11th term as secretary of state.
Tammy Baldwin’s trouncing of Republican challenger Leah Vukmir in Wisconsin’s Senate race is also a bright spot for Democrats, says Barry Burden, a UW-Madison political science professor.
“The Senate race reflects Tammy Baldwin’s hard work over the last six years in building a familiarity and a base of support around the state, and even identifying issues where she can work with Republicans and President Trump while still keeping her base in Madison and other Democratic areas,” he says. “That’s really been a masterful performance from an incumbent politician.”
Meanwhile, Democratic Congressional candidate Randy Bryce — despite some early national buzz — failed to capture the seat left vacant by outgoing House Speaker Paul Ryan. Overall, the results bode poorly for Democrats long-term, because the GOP will likely draw legislative district boundaries in 2021 that will be in place for another decade (although, Evers will also have input and could veto GOP maps). However, it’s fair to wonder whether Evers will struggle to enact his progressive agenda with the GOP retaining a majority in the state Legislature.
“It could lead to some interesting compromises, or it could lead to stalemate,” Burden says. “There’s just more unpredictability when two parties are sharing power.”
One thing is clear: The exodus of both Ryan and Walker marks a major shift in Wisconsin politics.
“There was a group of Republicans who really transformed this state over the last decade — Reince Priebus, Paul Ryan and Scott Walker,” Burden says. “They were all from the same generation, all of them interacted over the years in Southeast Wisconsin. They were conservatives who really looked like the future of the party, and now Priebus is out of politics, Ryan has stepped aside as speaker of the House and a member of Congress, and Walker has lost his governorship. It’s not to say they’re all gone forever, but it is the end of an era.”
A few major factors were at play. Members of the president’s party usually face a headwind in midterm elections, and President Trump’s low approval ratings have been a drag on the Wisconsin GOP, Burden says. But it’s also rare for a governor to run for a third term. In fact, Walker was the only governor in the country who took office in 2010 and was seeking re-election this cycle.
“Aside from Tommy Thompson, there isn’t a history of governors serving for long periods of time in Wisconsin,” he says. “Many of them are one or two terms. So, I think there was some fatigue associated with this long stretch of Republican control. Voters are interested in what the other options are, and Tony Evers might be that option.”
But by and large, the GOP held its ground. U.S. Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Glenbeulah) easily fended off a challenge from Democrat Dan Kohl in the 6th congressional district with 55 percent of the vote.
“I think both the Wisconsin Congress and Wisconsin legislators did a great job last night,” Grothman says in a phone interview. “Obviously, there were problems with the statewide campaigns of the governor and the attorney general. … It’s a difficult thing to see Scott Walker leave, but the assemblymen and state senators who supported his policies are still going to be around Madison.”
It’s a disappointing outcome for progressive-minded people such as Marion who believe the legislative branch of state government has been largely dysfunctional for eight years. But she sees a silver lining.
“We succeeded in getting Howard Marklein — who has been incredibly bad for schools, incredibly bad for roads, incredibly bad in terms of rural broadband — we got him to run on those things,” she says. “He ran on my platform. So, that’s a victory. We ought to be able to hold him accountable for what he ran on.”
[Editor's note: This article was corrected to state that legislative maps would likely be redrawn in 2021, not 2020.]
