Judge Brian Hagedorn, left, declared victory in the state Supreme Court race, with a roughly 6,000 vote lead over Judge Lisa Neubauer.
If ever there was a candidate for state Supreme Court that political progressives in Wisconsin should have been able to beat, it was Brian Hagedorn.
The appeals court judge, who apparently squeaked out a razor-thin victory over Judge Lisa Neubauer in an election her campaign manager says is “almost assuredly headed to a recount,” was former chief legal counsel for Scott Walker, whom state voters ousted last November. There he did his boss’s bidding in disempowering unions, advantaging Republicans and trying to spike a 2009 law that provided limited benefits to gay and lesbian couples, including the right of hospital visitation.
Revelations about Hagedorn’s incendiary blog posts, in which he likened homosexuality to bestiality and called Planned Parenthood “a wicked organization,” and his role with a Christian school that openly discriminates against gay teachers, students and parents, prompted the Wisconsin Realtors Association to revoke its endorsement and Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce to sit the race out.
Neubauer at one point had a 14-to-1 edge in support from outside advocacy groups as well as a considerable fundraising lead.
But then, the Republican State Leadership Committee spent at least $1 million on ads attacking Neubauer and portraying Hagedorn as a victim, just like Brett Kavanaugh. It urged supporters of Donald Trump to turn out for Hagedorn.
Lacking a sense of irony, the Washington, D.C.-based GOP committee ripped Neubauer for being backed by “out-of-state special-interest groups.”
The race was seen as critical because a win by Neubauer would have preserved the court’s current balance, in which conservatives enjoy a 4-3 majority, and set the stage for liberals to possibly regain control of the court next year when conservative Justice Daniel Kelly is set to face voters. (Marquette law professor Ed Fallone has also announced plans to run.)
Now, unless a recount manages to overturn Hagedorn’s roughly 6,000-vote lead, court conservatives will dominate 5-2, meaning that next year’s election cannot dislodge them from control.
Neubauer won Dane County handily, with 79 percent of the vote. But the total turnout was about 154,000 voters, compared to 184,000 county residents who went to the polls in April 2011, for the last razor-edged state Supreme Court election. Had turnout been at that level, Neubauer probably would have won.
Besides receiving a major boost from Republicans in this “nonpartisan” race, Hagedorn’s chances were likely helped by Neubauer’s campaign strategy. Unlike Justice Rebecca Dallet, who won last year over a conservative rival by appealing to people with progressive values, Neubauer denied having any ideological views while refusing to answer basic questions about which justices she admires and what court rulings she dislikes.
In the campaign’s final days, Neubauer did run one ad that briefly displayed the visage of Trump and bashed the Koch Brothers, who through their group, Americans for Prosperity, spent more than $200,000 on Hagedorn’s behalf. But it was not enough to make up for her lifeless campaign.
According to a tally generated for Isthmus by Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, outside groups pumped more than $3 million into the race as of election day. Of this amount, $1,587,466 benefitted Hagedorn and $1,491,749 went to help Neubauer. These totals do not include late expenditures that have not yet been reported.
Meanwhile, Neubauer’s campaign reported raising a total of $1,860,597 from individual donors through April 1, compared to $1,509,481 raised by Hagedorn. Neubauer’s campaign donors include 30 labor unions, which gave a total of $196,100; Hagedorn raked in $139,438 from various Republican Party affiliates, mostly the Republican Party of Wisconsin.
The race was to replace Justice Shirley Abrahamson, Wisconsin’s longest serving and most accomplished jurist, whom Hagedorn spent much of the campaign denigrating, claiming without evidence that she is politically compromised. Milwaukee writer Bruce Murphy saw this as a sign of desperation, and of the moral rot at Hagedorn’s core: “If it appears cowardly to trash someone who is not even on the stage to answer his attacks, it looks all the more unseemly when the target is an 86-year-old woman battling cancer.”
But, in the end, it may have proved integral to his success. Because despite Neubauer’s endlessly repeated mantra about being “fair, impartial and independent,” that does not appear to be what the people motivated enough to vote in this election wanted. It looks like they wanted Donald Trump.
