So, I know this guy. He’s really starting to get on my nerves.
A couple weeks ago I wrote about the political yoga moves he was going through to arrive at a choice in Wisconsin’s April 5 presidential primary. A liberal and nominally a Democrat, my friend had all but concluded that he should vote in the Republican primary for John Kasich.
His tortured thinking at the time was that the Democratic primary was a meaningless contest because Hillary Clinton had wrapped up the nomination. But the Republicans might still be able to nominate Kasich, who, while very conservative, was not just plain nuts, like Donald Trump or just plain scary, like Ted Cruz.
While he saw Kasich as a stronger opponent to Clinton, his top goal was to keep the likes of Trump or Cruz from getting anywhere near the presidency on the theory that come November, and given Clinton’s many flaws, you never know.
But that was then. Now, the expected rallying of the Republican establishment behind Kasich has not happened. Instead, not-crazy Republicans are holding their noses and reluctantly coming together behind Cruz, a man they detest. The theory would seem to be that Cruz still has some chance to win the GOP nomination outright, while Kasich would need a brokered convention. The problem with a floor fight in Cleveland is that Trump would almost certainly bolt if he was denied the nomination, guaranteeing the presidency to the Democrats. But if Cruz can overtake Trump in the delegate count, there’s at least some chance of keeping Trump and his voters in the party.
To quote Republican Sen. Lindsay Graham, the choice between Cruz and Trump is like the choice between “being shot or poisoned.” Graham has now endorsed Cruz, apparently hoping that the gun will malfunction.
Which brings me back to this guy I know. Since the Kasich gambit now seems off the table, his new strategy is to vote for Bernie Sanders. Bernie is where his heart is anyway, but his latest crack strategic thinking is that by keeping hope alive for Sanders he could help maintain a slim chance that Clinton won’t win the nomination after all.
This guy fears that Clinton could lose in November, maybe to Trump but certainly to the much smarter Cruz. His reasoning is that the very things that make Clinton an excellent candidate in sane times count as heavy liabilities in crazy times like these. In short, Clinton is highly qualified, reasonable, moderate and competent. None of these are qualities that a big swath of the American public seems to be looking for right now. In fact, they seem repulsed by actual qualifications for office.
The big theme of this election amounts to an overwhelming desire to tell the establishment of either party to go south (deep, deep, deep south), and Clinton is as establishment as establishment gets. My friend doesn’t like the way this sets up for Clinton, and that’s before we remind ourselves that there are three separate federal investigations into her emails involving some 100 FBI agents and immunity for at least one of her aides.
Plus, Clinton has her big delegate lead because she wins overwhelmingly in Southern states, which she has no chance of carrying in the general election, while she is losing to Sanders in most states, like Michigan, where a Democrat has to win.
So, this guy may vote for Sanders, not because he thinks Bernie has any chance of getting the nomination, but because he hopes that by throwing Clinton’s electability into even greater doubt the super delegates who support her might think again come convention time.
My friend thinks that the best shot at keeping Trump or Cruz out of the White House is a ticket that looks something like Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. You might object to that reasoning, arguing that if there is anybody even close to Clinton for being establishment it’s Biden. But increasingly and unfortunately, elections are all about optics and impressions. Biden comes off as a regular guy — The Onion once ran a story with a fake picture of him in the White House driveway wearing a muscle shirt while he detailed his GTO. He also has a knack for the odd misstatement. And in this year of reverse logic, what in other cycles would be a liability presents itself as a sign of authenticity.
And Warren would deliver the enthusiasm of the party’s liberal base far better than Clinton ever could.
I can’t wait for April 5 because this guy has gotten in my head. I just want him to go vote and get on with important things, like thinking about baseball.
