David Michael Miller
Even with a double-digit loss in the Wisconsin primary, Hillary Clinton continued her slow, methodical, joyless slog toward the Democratic nomination and, it seems likely, the presidency.
While Bernie Sanders won a decisive victory in total votes, he may have only won a handful more delegates than Clinton. She will probably end up with something like 40 delegates out of the total of 86 delegates apportioned by vote totals, and she’ll take home even more once all 10 superdelegates weigh in. She needs to win only a third of the remaining delegates in the states to seal the nomination.
Democrats I talk to generally fall into three categories in their reaction to Clinton. There are the Bernie Sanders true believers who vow never to vote for a candidate they see as a corporate sellout. My bet is that they’ll vote for Clinton in November when the choice comes down to a corporate sellout versus someone who incorporates every far-right idea they despise.
Then there are the broccoli people. These folks look at Hillary the way they look at a healthy vegetable. They know it’s good for them, but they wouldn’t rush home for dinner just because it’s on the menu. They may have voted for her or for Bernie in the primary, but they’ll be content to cast a vote for Clinton in the fall.
Finally, there are the cause Clinton voters. These are people, often women of her generation, who see her candidacy as the culmination of a lifelong struggle. They are frustrated with younger women who are turning out for Sanders. They see their daughters and granddaughters as turning their backs on them after benefitting from the battles they fought for gender equality. For them this is personal. Even if they have some doubts about Clinton herself, what she represents is viscerally important to them. They will walk across hot coals to vote for her in the fall.
If Clinton were running against Ronald Reagan she’d be this year’s Walter Mondale. Competent, but uninspiring. The next person in line and sure to go to the slaughter. But Clinton is lucky in her opponents. She would crush Donald Trump and she’d probably beat Ted Cruz. If the Republicans find a way to nominate someone like Paul Ryan without losing the Trump voters, then Clinton could lose, but that seems a remote possibility right now.
So Hillary Clinton will almost surely be the Democratic nominee and very likely the next president. But she is not the future of the Democratic Party. That belongs to Bernie Sanders or, more accurately for the 74-year-old Sanders, his people. Consider that Sanders is consistently winning about three out of four young voters and that exit polls in Wisconsin found two-thirds of Democrats describing themselves as somewhat or very liberal compared to just 49% in 2008.
The future of the Democrats is not to be a left-center party dominated by comfortable baby boomers and corporate elites. It looks a lot like Bernie Sanders if Sanders were 50 years younger. Hillary Clinton could well be the first woman president, but her politics are as traditional and establishment as they come. The second woman president might well be a millennial who got her first taste of politics working to elect a 74-year-old guy from Vermont.
