What if the Dems were must-see TV?

Have an open convention that actually makes a real decision about nominating a ticket

by

Joe Biden gave his State of the Union address last week and I think it was aimed at me. 

I’m one of the 61% of his voters from 2020 who now think he’s too old for the job. Biden was pretty clearly trying to come off as feisty, energetic and combative. And he ended the speech with an actual acknowledgement of the age issue. He followed that up with a new TV ad that addresses the issue and does so pretty effectively. 

But I remain unconvinced. The problem is that we’ve got a long eight months to go before November. He did well enough in his speech before Congress, a place that is like home for him and in a presentation for which he had weeks to prepare, but how’s he going to hold up out there on the stump in less controlled environments? 

I recently made my case for scrapping this summer’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago. It was just a little rhetorical exercise. I know it ain’t gonna happen or rather, the convention is most certainly going to happen, though why it will happen remains a mystery to me. 

In any event, since we must concede that the Dems will go through the motions, why not make it fun, interesting and consequential? A four-day reality series with the potential for stellar ratings. Why not have an open convention that actually makes a real decision about nominating a ticket?

Now to get killer ratings we’ll need to fix one detail. Joe Biden will have to bow out. Of course, he shows no signs of doing so and his general attitude is something like ‘why the hell should I!’

He might want to look at the latest numbers from the New York Times/ Siena College poll. Here’s a summary. 

Trump leads Biden by four points among likely voters. A year ago Biden led Trump by two points. And since then Trump has lost civil suits over sexual harassment and his shady business dealings and he’s facing over 90 criminal charges for inciting the Jan. 6 riots and trying to steal the election in Georgia among other things. In that same year Biden can take credit for getting inflation under control without a recession, low unemployment and a record high stock market. Both Biden’s bad numbers and Trump’s good numbers seem impervious to their actual records. So, there’s no reason to think that more good news for Biden or more bad news for Trump will make any difference before November. 

Trump leads Biden in all the swing states. The Times reports that even Biden insiders are now conceding Georgia and Arizona, meaning that Biden would have to sweep Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. While he trails in all three states, Michigan might be most problematic given his challenges regarding his support for Israel. There was a sizable protest vote there in the Michigan primary. 

There’s a big enthusiasm gap. Ninety-seven percent of Trump’s 2020 voters say they’ll vote for him again compared to only 83% of Biden’s. Only 23% of Biden voters say they’re enthusiastic about their choice compared to 48% for Trump. 

Biden is losing support among female, Black and Hispanic voters. That’s right. He’s facing a guy with a long record of flat-out misogynistic statements as well as sustained allegations of sexual assault and yet support for Biden among women voters is now even with Trump’s. He’s facing a guy who has made baldly racist remarks (“there were good people on both sides,” etc.) and yet Biden is now actually losing to Trump among Hispanic voters and Trump is even gaining with Black voters. 

Biden is bleeding support among working class voters. He won 72% of voters without a college degree last time and now his lead with that group versus Trump is down to only 47% to 41%. 

Even a majority of Biden’s 2020 voters now think he’s too old. As I mentioned above, an astounding 61% of people who voted for him four years ago now think he’s too old to be an effective president. Count me among them. 

Most voters see the country headed in the wrong direction. Two-thirds of Americans say things are going south and two-thirds of them will vote for Trump. 

Twice as many voters see Trump as being good for their personal situation as Biden. Forty percent of voters said that about Trump while only 18% said Biden’s policies had helped them. 

If lightning struck (and may lightning strike him) and Trump somehow was not the nominee, everything would be much worse. Nikki Haley held a 45% to 35% lead over Biden, twice Trump’s margin. Yeah, she dropped out after Super Tuesday, but it just demonstrates that a new face who can make a case for change will have a big advantage — and that works on the Democratic side as well. 

And yet the Democratic Party establishment insists that there is no other choice. We must soldier on grimly to the slaughter. After all, it’s too late for anybody else to get on the primary ballots and nobody takes Marianne Williamson seriously. 

Here’s what this is like. Imagine you’re driving down a two-lane highway late at night. Suddenly you see a pair of headlights bearing down on you in your lane. There’s time to swerve but you’re in a no passing zone and so, doggone it, you are going to stay in your lane. Smack. 

An open convention could be messy. It would certainly be risky, but any riskier than nominating a guy with these kinds of numbers? The party has plenty of good alternatives to Biden including governors who win in purple and even red states, like Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, Andy Beshear in Kentucky, Laura Kelly in Kansas and Roy Cooper from North Carolina. I also like former South Bend Mayor and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. 

A convention like that would be exciting and the odds are that it would result in a ticket with a better chance of beating Trump. So, if my party must have a convention this summer, let's make it must-see TV. 

Dave Cieslewicz is a Madison- and Upper Peninsula-based writer who served as mayor of Madison from 2003 to 2011. You can read more of his work at Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos.