David Michael Miller
After a primary season that has dragged on for a year, the presidential ballot is coming into focus. It is almost a certainty that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. It is a certainty that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.
Congratulations, President Clinton.
Now, Hillary’s victory is not a certainty. There’s a lot that could happen between now and then. Disgruntled Bernie Sanders supporters could rally around a third-party candidate like Jill Stein and damage Clinton’s margins. That’s particularly a risk if Clinton nominates a moderate, as opposed to Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, to try to win swing states like Virginia. The GOP could, with its tighter party unity, rally around Trump, making #nevertrump a distant memory.
But it is far more likely that Clinton will grab the vast majority of the understandably disgruntled Sanders supporters, as Obama did with the understandably disgruntled Clinton supporters after the 2008 primary. It is also likely that a few percentage points of Republican voters stay home, unable to stomach voting for Trump. That’s particularly likely in Wisconsin, where the #nevertrump movement reached its brief apex.
Given this very possible scenario, is the Democratic Party of Wisconsin ready for a #nevertrump wave in November? If even a small percentage of Republican voters stay home on Election Day due to Trump, that will have a major impact on the Wisconsin Legislature. It gives a security blanket to Sen. Jennifer Shilling (D-La Crosse) in her re-election bid against the man she defeated in a recall election, Dan Kapanke. It helps out Mark Harris’ campaign to win a Senate seat that Democrats lost by the thinnest of margins in 2012.
Victories from Shilling and Harris whittle the 19-14 Republican Senate majority down to 18-15. One upset victory on the Democratic side takes that down to 17-16; one wavering Republican senator would stop any legislation. Two upset victories yield a Democratic majority, stopping the Republican freight train of destructive legislation.
Trump malaise can help Democrats win back a number of Assembly seats too. It won’t be enough to wrest control from the Republicans in this election cycle. But it could be enough to make the long drag up majority mountain feel achievable. If nothing else, it would get the Republicans to stop chanting that “largest majority in decades” mantra.
Once again, an anti-Trump wave isn’t a certainty. But it is enough of a possibility that Democrats need to be ready for it. The filing deadline to run for Assembly or Senate is June 1, less than a month away. Are there good candidates ready to contest seemingly safe legislative seats that could suddenly become competitive? With the Trump news, is it worth doing some last-minute recruitment of candidates? After all, conventional wisdom and all the polling data said Russ Feingold was fairly safe in the spring of 2010 — that’s how a political lightweight like Ron Johnson got the Republican nomination and eventually a U.S. Senate seat.
Is the Democratic ground game ready across the state? This is the first real election for party chair Martha Laning, and it is her best opportunity to show that her party did the right thing by electing her after the disappointing record of her predecessor Mike Tate. Even in 2012 when Obama won, the state party embarrassingly underperformed in several Assembly districts. An article last year in Daily Kos shows the districts where Obama won but the Assembly Democratic candidate lost.
The Republican Party in Wisconsin is highly organized and should not be underestimated. Remember, thanks to the rallying cry of Milwaukee talk radio, this is one of the only states where the party establishment was strong enough to beat back Trump.
Donald Trump supporters have handed the Democratic Party of Wisconsin a badly needed opportunity. Now we’ll see if Democrats can take advantage of it.
