The tea party is over

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The growing protests against public health measures being used to fight COVID-19 appear at first glance to look a lot like the early tea party rallies in 2009. If we’re headed for a repeat of that period that would be very bad news, but there’s reason to think times are different. 

Like 2009, the current rallies are replete with vitriolic rhetoric, lots of American flags, guns and constitutional experts on every street corner. The protesters are angry at the government which, like in 2009, is acting pretty much in the protesters’ best interests. Back then it was staving off a full-scale economic depression and increasing access to health care; now it’s warding off mass sickness and death. 

In Wisconsin, a protest took place in Brookfield on April 18 and in Madison the next day. Another one is planned for the state Capitol grounds on April 24. In a story in Newsweek about the upcoming Madison event, Colby-Abbotsford Police Chief Jason Bauer was reported to have written to Gov. Tony Evers suggesting, helpfully, that he should, "think of COVID-19 as the Devil."

"We are not supposed to fear the Devil, faith in God should prevail," Bauer wrote. "I do not fear the Devil nor COVID-19. I believe COVID-19 has some politicians scared, resulting in bad decisions."

Well, gosh, when a man’s reasoning is that airtight, it’s just hard to argue with him, isn’t it?

Pure goofiness aside, there is reason for Democrats to worry about this sense of déjà vu because the tea party movement was a disaster for them in the 2010 elections. Fueled at least in part by tea party activism, Republicans won in a landslide. Here in Wisconsin we went from a Democratic governor and Legislature to complete Republican control. Sen. Russ Feingold was knocked off by Ron Johnson, a tea party favorite. The timing could not have been worse — it was the governor and legislators who took office in early 2011 who redrew legislative districts, locking in their majorities for the next decade and, it would appear, beyond. 

But for all the obvious similarities between conservative populist mobilization a decade ago and what’s happening now, there are some key differences that should ease Democrats’ worries. 

For one thing, 2010 was not a presidential election year. Liberals were more or less satisfied with President Obama in office and a Democratic Congress, while conservatives were red-hot mad and plenty motivated. 

Now things are flipped. The 2020 election will be a pure referendum on Donald Trump. Whatever anger conservatives can muster over their perceived unnecessary loss of liberty will be outweighed by enduring liberal anger over the very existence of Donald Trump in the White House. And it’s not like Trump ever takes a day off from motivating liberals. He actually enjoys getting under their skin. Why else would he award the Medal of Freedom to Rush Limbaugh? With his daily, sometimes hourly tweets, he’s throwing another log on the fire of liberal hatred. The Democrats have no harder campaign worker for their cause than Donald J. Trump. 

Then there’s timing. Nobody can predict what will happen, but it looks like restrictions will start to be eased this spring and summer. If all goes well, by the fall the necessary draconian measures may be, if not gone, at least adjusted to. Chances are that most of the wind will go out of the sails of the tea party redux. 

The tea party movement started with some surprisingly large grassroots rallies, but it was quickly co-opted by the professional Republican apparatus and their media partners. The movement was so powerful, however, that it eventually took over its own host party. By 2018 the takeover was complete when Donald Trump was elected president. Most mainstream Republicans transformed themselves into populist conservatives but some left the party altogether.  

Those who left are not going to vote for Donald Trump. They may not vote for Joe Biden, but the moderate Biden will not scare them back into the arms of a man they despise. I think we got a taste of that in Jill Karofsky’s state Supreme Court victory last week. Conservative incumbent Justice Daniel Kelly, who was strongly endorsed by Trump, significantly underperformed in the suburban Milwaukee powerhouse of the Republican Party. Connection with Trump was as much a taint as a tonic for Kelly. 

You will, no doubt, hear some sound and fury around the Capitol Square this Friday. My guess is that it will signify nothing.