Campainless

Mayor Paul Soglin has big plans for when he’s governor. High on his to-do list is passing an omnibus bill that will “undo the damage” created by Gov. Scott Walker.

“The bill is going to touch on all the horrendous things that Walker has done to labor, the Department of Natural Resources, what happened to the [former] Department of Commerce and all the areas where harm has been done to the state,” Soglin says. “We got to approach this in a way that Democrats have failed in the past. We have to be as decisive and determined in implementing our program as Scott Walker was when he came into office.”

When he is governor, Soglin says he will derail Walker’s $3 billion Foxconn contract. He will invest more in public schools and the UW System and pay for it by raising the state’s income tax “at the highest brackets.” He’ll cut the Department of Corrections budget by releasing nonviolent people “who need more help and less punishment.”

But he won’t spend much time in Maple Bluff. “I really like the house we live in now. Maybe we’ll use the governor’s mansion for ceremonial purposes and that’s it. The commute is about the same.”

Soglin appears to have skipped an important step: getting elected. To hear the mayor describe it, that’s the easy part.

“When I said to my wife, Sarah, ‘What do you think of me running for governor?’ she said, ‘You can run. But only if you win,’” Soglin says. “If someone is putting themselves forward as the Democrat to take on Walker, they have an immense obligation to beat him.”

Soglin joined the race for governor in January. But unlike many of his primary opponents, he isn’t aggressively fundraising, sending out daily press releases or holding campaign events. Even so, polls show he’s a real contender in the Aug. 14 Democratic primary.

Soglin’s current term as mayor ends in April 2019. When asked if he’ll run for mayor again, Soglin scoffs.

“I already told you,” he says. “By this time next year, I’ll be governor.”

Is the mayor crazy? Or just crazy enough to pull it off?

Soglin’s roadmap to victory looks like this: Run a “supper club” campaign for the next few months. Hit the trail hard in July as the race heats up. Catapult past the herd of Democrats to win the August primary. Convince voters to deny Walker a third term and win the Nov. 6 general election — just in time to finish up one last city budget. Then on Jan. 7, 2019, get sworn in as the 46th governor of Wisconsin. Easy-peasy, right?

But 17 other Democrats are also running, including State Superintendent of Schools Tony Evers, former state Rep. Kelda Roys of Madison, state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout from Alma, Wisconsin firefighter union head Mahlon Mitchell, Milwaukee businessmen Matt Flynn and Andy Gronik, activist Mike McCabe, and state Rep. Dana Wachs from Eau Claire. The primary winner will face an electorate that has stood with Walker three times in eight years.

UW-Madison political science professor Barry Burden says Evers is positioning himself as the Democratic frontrunner.

“Evers has a lot of strengths mostly because he’s run statewide successfully several times. He’s built a statewide campaign before, he’s traveled across the state before,” Burden says. “Those are invaluable experiences that most of the other candidates don’t have.”

WisPolitics editor JR Ross says it’s hard to tell if voters are paying attention yet. “We had a legislative session that dragged into March. We had a hot Supreme Court race. Then Paul Ryan announced he wasn’t seeking re-election,” Ross says. “There’s just been one thing after another that’s been pulling attention away from the governor’s race.”

There’s also the crowded field to sort through. Ross wonders: “How do you get your message out there when there are so many competing voices?”

According to Marquette Law School’s March poll, 47 percent of voters approve of Walker’s job performance; 47 percent disapprove. The governor has millions of dollars in campaign funds, a tested field operation, and the backing of the billionaire Koch Brothers and their shadowy network of mega donors.

Craig Gilbert, who tracks Wisconsin voter trends for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, says Walker faces new obstacles in this race.

“As polarized as the state has become, I’ve talked to voters who are on the fence,” Gilbert says. “I think it gets harder for an incumbent like Walker the third time around. Sometimes people get restless.

“For now, the race is still kind of open-ended. Unformed,” Gilbert adds. “The turnout in the primary will be a much bigger slice of the Democratic electorate than just the insiders and activists. Who do those voters support?”

Soglin insists it’ll be him.

It all started with a poll last May. Curious about his prospects in the governor’s race, Soglin commissioned respected Democratic pollster Paul Maslin to conduct a “classic poll of 500 likely Wisconsin voters” with a proportional balance of independents, Republicans and Democrats from across the state.

The mayor was delighted when it showed he could beat Walker in a head-to-head race by nine points. “I’m a big believer in polls,” Soglin says. “I wouldn’t be running if I couldn’t beat Walker.”

In March, Soglin paid Maslin for a second poll of 601 likely primary voters. It showed that when voters are given a description of each candidate, Soglin received 23 percent support, second only to Evers’ 25 percent.

“There’s only two of us that have a serious chance of getting the nomination: Evers and myself,” Soglin says. “He’s got the most name recognition. But as voters learn more about the other candidates, Evers’ support significantly drops. My support goes up by several points.”

Soglin says his polls show that he has name recognition statewide, especially when he’s referred to as Madison Mayor Paul Soglin.

“There are voters across the state that know me because I was mayor while they were at UW,” Soglin says. “There are voters across the state that know me because their kid or kids went to UW. They seem to like me.”

On March 5, Marquette Law School released the only independent poll of the Democratic primary race. It, too, showed Soglin in second place behind Evers. However, a whopping 44 percent of primary voters did not know whom they would support.

With so many votes up for grabs, how does Soglin plan to win?

With a supper club campaign!

The mayor explained his strategy when he announced his candidacy on Jan. 10. “I will be in the diners and wherever we find Wisconsinites, and I will be listening to them and answering their questions,” Soglin said. “That’s the way to campaign in Wisconsin.”

Soglin tells Isthmus he prefers meeting voters in an “unstructured environment.”

“I’m not doing campaign events. So far, I’ve mostly just attended as many of the [candidate] forums as I can. Along the way, I try to stop at a bar or a diner to get a sandwich. That’s the supper club part,” Soglin says. “I get to talking to someone at a bar. Once they know who I am and that I’m running for governor, that usually gets a few people’s attention and all of a sudden I’ve met a dozen or so people.”

Before a March 29 forum in Milwaukee, Soglin stopped at a cafe in Lake Mills and chatted with some retired guys. On his way home, he visited a Delafield restaurant. He waits for customers to approach him.

“I don’t impose myself on people. I don’t go around shaking hands,” Soglin says. “It’s a chance to hear what real folks are thinking about. It’s not programmed questions from people with political agendas.”

Ald. David Ahrens has a question that a number of politicos are asking about Soglin.

“Is he actually running for governor? Whole thing seems a bit quixotic,” he says. “When [Soglin] ran for Congress against Scott Klug in the 1990s, he resigned as mayor. That should tell you something.”

Former Mayor Dave Cieslewicz — who beat Soglin in 2003 but lost to him eight years later — also questions Soglin’s strategy. “I’m just not sure that stopping in at a bar, ordering a sandwich and maybe talking to some people counts as actively campaigning.”

Evers announced his run for governor in August and since then has held dozens of meet-and-greets across Wisconsin. He’s campaigned in Wausau, Waukesha, Waupaca, Racine, Stevens Point, Green Bay, Mineral Point, Plymouth, Kenosha, Baraboo and Ashland.

Soglin is also maintaining a robust travel schedule — just not as a gubernatorial candidate. Since announcing his bid, the mayor has attended conferences in Austin, Washington, D.C., and San Francisco. He went to Puerto Rico on a mayor exchange and even found time for the 17th annual Road Salt Symposium in Minneapolis. This week, the mayor is in Boston for an opioid epidemic conference.

“I made commitments to represent Madison at a number of events that I’m obligated to attend,” Soglin says. “Those kind of obligations become less frequent as we head into the summer and the peak primary season.”

The mayor is forgoing some common campaign strategies.

Roys, who quit her job to campaign full time, produced an ad that made national news. Gronik and McCabe — neither of whom have held public office — are competing as outsiders fed up with politics as usual. Mitchell has earned endorsements from prominent labor unions. Several of the primary candidates send out frequent fundraising pleas and statements on the day’s hot topic.

Just a few weeks ago, the mayor’s campaign website was a static page with only a photo and address on it.

“My campaign has phases. I will start seeking out more events that get me in the room with around 50, 60 people who are skeptical, who don’t know who they are voting for yet. That’s where I do well,” Soglin says. “Other candidates may hand out candy at parades. But that’s just not me.”

Soglin brags that he’s doing well because other candidates are holding more events, posting more on social media and, likely, raising more money.

“But what do they have to show for it? Most of the other candidates are in their sixth, seventh month of their campaign. I’m just getting started,” Soglin says. “The campaign is not going to be won with early endorsements or how many field offices a candidate has in April. It’s going to be won in July and our campaign is focused on that.”

No politician looms larger in Madison than Paul Soglin. In the 1960s, he was a UW-Madison student activist and Vietnam War protester. In 1967, he was beaten by police officers during campus demonstrations against Dow Chemical. He served three terms on the Common Council while attending a graduate program and law school. At age 27, Soglin defeated incumbent Bill Dyke to become mayor. Since then, Madison voters elected Soglin to lead the city seven more times during three stints spanning the 1970s, 1990s and from 2011 to the present. He’s logged 21 years as mayor.

With so many candidates in this year’s primary race, Burden says it’s possible a Democrat could win the nomination with 20 to 30 percent of the vote.

“That may work to Soglin’s advantage,” Burden says. “He’s the most visible of all the candidates in Madison for sure. But he’s also not the only candidate from the area. Kelda Roys, Mahlon Mitchell, Mike McCabe, Tony Evers. They can all make that claim. If Dane County voters are split, that may work out better for candidates that have made in-roads across the state.”

Dane County voters accounted for nearly 20 percent of Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Dallet’s statewide vote total in April’s election. A big show of support for Soglin on his home turf may win him the nomination.

Stu Levitan, a Soglin supporter and Isthmus contributor, says the mayor is “by far the most qualified and experienced candidate in the race.”

“Madison tried for 40 years to build Monona Terrace. Paul Soglin built it and he did by working with a Republican governor and the business community,” Levitan says. “He transformed downtown with the State Street mall. This term, just look at the amount of affordable housing he’s building.”

Floyd Rose, president of 100 Black Men of Madison, says Soglin isn’t your average mayor. “I’ve witnessed the mayor in a national setting. In cities much larger than Madison, mayors look at him as the dean,” Rose says. “They have a tremendous regard and respect for him. He brings a lot of wisdom and experience to the table.”

Soglin can be gruff and impatient, but Levitan says that’s part of his mystique.

“Paul’s perceived grumpiness and grouchiness is not artifice,” Levitan says. “But he’s very genuine and voters pick up on that. People aren’t looking for a chum. They want a governor.”

Cieslewicz, an Isthmus columnist, believes the mayor has a chance but is skeptical his testy persona will play well outside of Madison. Soglin grew up in Hyde Park but has called Wisconsin home longer than Walker has been alive. Even so, Cieslewicz says you can take the mayor out of Chicago, but you can’t take Chicago out of the mayor.

“He just doesn’t come across to me as a Wisconsin person,” Cieslewicz says. “He doesn’t hunt or fish. For God’s sake, he’s a Bears’ fan.”

Soglin would be an okay governor, Cieslewicz says, but isn’t the chief executive Wisconsin needs.

“Politics has become mean-spirited and polarized under Trump and to some extent, Walker and the Republicans in the Legislature. I want a candidate who will reverse that. To me, that’s even more important than policies. That ain’t Paul,” says Cieslewicz. “What’s needed now more than anything else is a return to common political practices. Respect for the minority. Promoting civility. The kind of politics Wisconsin used to be all about.”

Former Ald. Brenda Konkel counters that centrist Democrats promising to bridge the partisan divide have failed to defeat Walker. “I don’t know if Soglin can beat Walker. If he uses the same old tired corporate Democratic Party playbook, probably not,” Konkel says. “But the mayor is not one to play by the rules.”

Ahrens may question Soglin’s campaign strategy, but he’d love watching the mayor debate Walker.

“Soglin is pugnacious. If Walker delivers a shot, he’ll give it right back,” Ahrens says. “I don’t think Walker has really faced anyone like that. People have been well-mannered and gracious while [Walker] has said outrageous things. Facing a candidate like Soglin, that would be a something we haven’t seen before.”

Walker seems obsessed with how Soglin gave Cuban dictator Fidel Castro the key to the city in 1975. The governor has yet to mention any other Democratic opponents on his campaign’s Twitter feed this year, but he’s tweeted a photo of Castro and Soglin four times.

“Look how far Democrats have drifted to the left when one of their leading candidates for governor in Wisconsin is a mayor who gave brutal Communist dictator Fidel Castro the keys to the city!” the governor tweeted on Jan. 2, before Soglin entered the race.

“Why is Walker just attacking Paul and no other candidate?” Levitan wonders. “Because he knows Paul can beat him.”

If Madison’s septuagenarian mayor wins the primary, Burden expects Walker will make Soglin’s long career an issue. “Walker will say that Soglin represents the past, the hippie Madison of the 1960s. And that [Walker] represents the future of Wisconsin,” Burden says. “On the other hand, Soglin has a number of things he can crow about. Madison and Dane County are the real job engines for the state.”

Soglin is eager to highlight Walker’s economic development record.

“Look at all the publicity Walker has received since announcing the Foxconn deal. He hasn’t seen any increase in support,” Soglin says. “What I don’t think Walker realizes is that his numbers are going to deteriorate when people learn what could have been done to actually improve the lives of real people with the $3 billion he just handed over. He’s going to shiver whenever he hears the word Foxconn.”

The Walker campaign didn’t answer questions submitted by Isthmus. But Austin Altenburg, campaign press secretary, wrote in an email that the governor’s reforms have cleaned up “the mess created by liberal Madison policies like those of Mayor Soglin and the rest of the wide-open field for governor. The governor’s opponents would only take Wisconsin backward.”

Alec Zimmerman, communication director for the Republican Party of Wisconsin, echoes that point.

“Whether his embrace of the failed policies of yesterday, or his ties to brutal communist dictator Fidel Castro, Paul Soglin is an out-of-touch extremist who would take Wisconsin backward,” Zimmerman writes.

Soglin’s response: “That’s the best you got?”

“Anyone who cares about Castro [isn’t] voting for any Democrat,” Soglin says. “Voters in their late 40s were teenagers when the Berlin Wall came down and the Cold War came to an end. Having grown up with their Che Guevara T-shirts and without the shadows of the Cold War, they like me.”

The mayor says he tested his negatives with voters in the same 2017 poll that showed he can beat Walker.

“Told them I was 72 years old. That I was a fervent demonstrator against the war in Vietnam. That I was a tax-and-spend liberal — those were the exact words we used. And that I gave the key to the city to Fidel Castro,” Soglin says. “My numbers got better with the negatives. Given Walker’s response to my campaign, we pretty well nailed it.”

While Walker obsesses about the mayor’s past and others cast doubt on his campaign, Soglin says something is happening out there.

“A guy came up to me as I was leaving a bar, I think somewhere near Portage. He reached out, shook my hand and told me he’s a Walker supporter. Then he said I was alright,” Soglin says. “Will that translate into a vote? Guess we’ll find out.”